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Operation Disclosure Official
By David Lifschultz, Contributing Writer
Submitted on January 29, 2025
WILL THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ UNLEASH ARMAGEDDON
Compliments of The Lifschultz Organization, Founded in 1899
The oil traveling each day through the Straits of Hormuz is said to be about 24 million barrels. That is about 25% of the world supply. Goldman Sachs derivative experts say that its shutdown would cause the oil price go to about $700.00 a barrel if the Straits of Hormuz was closed and then the world economy would crash as in 1929-1933 where the German economy registered 50% unemployment and the United States 25%. It is questionable whether the US and European political systems would hold together as the 718 trillion dollar derivative market would explode in a chain reaction as a nuclear explosion according to Warren Buffett. Some say it is two quadrillion in derivatives but the figure I give comes from the Bank for International Settlements.
The price of oil quadrupled by 1974 from US$3 to nearly US$12 per 42 gallon barrel ($75 per cubic meter), equivalent in 2018 dollars to a price rise from $17 to $61 per barrel. Saudi Arabia had 25% of the world’s oil, but only 4% of the oil used in the United States in 1973 came from the kingdom.
By 1973 inflation was running at 8.7% and would average 9.2% for nine years—far surpassing average inflation of 3.3% between 1946 and 1972 while in 1972 alone it was 3.2%.
We give some background of similar crises though not as severe as the above. Consider this…
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During the first oil shock in 1973, about 5 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 56 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 9% of the supply vanished. Oil prices roughly quadrupled.
During the second oil shock in 1979, about 4 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 67 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 6% of the supply vanished. Oil prices nearly tripled.
During the third oil shock in 1990, about 4.3 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 66 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 7% of the supply vanished. Oil prices more than doubled.
If Iran were to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, it would remove a whopping 24 million barrels of oil from the global market. Today, global oil production is around 96 million barrels per day, which means about 25% of the worldwide oil supply could disappear. Goldman Sachs derivative expert anticipate a $700.00 per barrel price which would collapse with the total collapse of the world economy.
As we can see in the chart below, it would be the largest oil supply shock the world has ever seen… by far.
We haven’t returned to pre-2014 levels yet, let alone the 2008 peak of over $140 per barrel. And that’s not even taking into account the massive debasement of the US dollar that has happened since.
David Lifschultz
THE LIFSCHULTZ ORGANIZATION
DAVID@LIFSCHULTZORGANIZATION.COM
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