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The SCIF
@TheIntelSCIF
2024 to 2026 midterms right now show 2,980 out of 3,111 counties that their votes “SHIFTED” towards Democrats.
As of the latest 2026 midterm counts/total number of counties controlled by party:
🟦 Democrats carry roughly 700 counties in total.
🟥 Republicans carry about 2,411 counties in total.
Out of the 3,111 counties with a substantial amount of votes counted, but still some to go.
🟦 Democrats gained around 232 counties as of now.
🟥 Republicans lost around 274 counties as of now.
Specifically, 259 counties that Trump won in 2024 allegedly voted for Democrats in this year’s top race, while only about 10 went the other direction.
People seem to be confusing vote share and the total amount of counties that “shifted” their votes with the total amount of counties “controlled” by each party.
Analyses of top races from the Senate, governor, House where comparable, in about 3,111 counties showed an average around 14.7-point move toward Democrats relative to the 2024 presidential vote from roughly R+1.6 to D+13.1 nationally in those comparisons.
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About 2,980 of 3,111 counties moved toward Democrats, with nearly all county types shifting blue, with especially large moves in some urban, Hispanic-center, and suburban areas.
Examples include big Democratic overperformance in Texas counties, Talarico’s Senate win, and Michigan, nearly every county bluer.
Source(s):
• https://x.com/TheSCIF/status/2119859796652253540
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