China: A Towering Giant

1510

Operation Disclosure | By David Lifschultz, Contributing Writer

Submitted on April 6, 2021

CHINA: A TOWERING GIANT

Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899

Dear George:

China greatly underestimates their GDP so as not to scare the world that has become frightened anyway. Over half the steel in the world is made in China or 996 million tons a year against 88 million tons for the US. They made in 2017 27 million cars to our 11 million. Washing machines are 30.3 million against 9 million for US. Their nominal GDP was 14.8 trillion versus our 21.4 trillion. These GDP comparisons are absurd. I had a lengthy study by the China expert that showed how this was done, but I cannot put my hands on it at the moment. You have to look underneath the statistics to have a full understanding on how China has left the US behind in real GDP as the US did for the whole world by 1929.  We estimate it as twice the US. Then we had Henry Fords, Harry Firestones, Thomas Alva Edison. Then, we had 75% of the world car production. We dominated the world. Today we are largely a paper tiger. Half the country are on transfer payments and the true unemployed if we include those unemployed for over a year is over 25.7%. We have gigantic rust belt which is the burial ground of the past US industrial triumph.

March 2021 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment is 25.7%

And now where does our bank credit go but to Wall Street by the trillions to manipulate the markets such as the foreign exchange market, the stock exchanges by cash settlement manipulations and naked shorting versus building factories. It does not go to build factories. When we in the intelligence community set China up to offset Russian power we instructed them that bank credit can only be used to build factories and forget about our US corrupt and manipulated markets. They will tell you that China did not have a developed stock exchange China but so what. We invented the debt structure to replace it. You will have the factories you need to build your country and your military to offset Russia. And they listened to our advice according to Hjalmar Schacht approach who wiped out 50% unemployment in 1933 so by 1938 there was none while we had 19%. And it is a myth that it was the German military budget that was not larger than France or England.

Today I can only think of Elon Musk as a great industrialist but the rest are just manipulating the data as Facebook, Google, Twitter, Microsoft, Oracle, etc.  As Ford said, the power of a nation is in its power of production. This does not mean we do not need software and AI but that the production incorporating these advances is vital.

And we should not leave the Bible out of the discussion but the west today is the first in history to legalize sodomitic marriage that makes the US lower than even Sodom and Gomorrah. I would recommend you read the book of Ezekiel if you would like to learn how this will turn out or turn to Germany in 1933 when the corrupt Weimar Republic was overthrown.

With best wishes.

David

China as a Third World Country

April 6, 2021
By: George Friedman

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There is much discussion about the surging Chinese economy and the expanding international influence of China. There is no question that China’s economy has consistently expanded in the last 40 years, since the death of Mao Zedong. But Mao had created an extraordinarily poor China, based on ideology and the desire to eliminate the power of the old economic elite that was concentrated along the coast. Mao feared them as a threat to the revolution. In fact, he feared the bourgeois tendency toward wealth and comfort as a challenge to the revolution. He throttled the Chinese economy, and as a result, virtually any rational behavior by Chinese rulers would generate dramatic growth. China, with a vast potential workforce and a basically sophisticated culture, inevitably surged by shedding the malevolent and strange grip of Mao.

Forty years later, under a reasonably rational political structure, China has surged to being one of the largest economies in the world, second only to the United States. The gap between the U.S. and China is still substantial, with China’s gross domestic product at only 70 percent of the United States’. This is of course much narrower than 40 or even 20 years ago. Still, it is a substantial gulf. But GDP represents the aggregate production of a nation, and from an aggregated point of view, China’s $14 trillion economy is a miracle.

But it is simply not the miracle it seems to be. One measure of an economy among many is GDP, the economy as a whole. Another way to look at an economy is per capita GDP, the aggregated divided by the population. This gives a sense, imperfect but useful, of how Chinese citizens are faring compared to citizens of other countries. Looking at the economy as a whole, China is impressive. In per capita GDP, it is another matter.

There are two ways to measure such things. One is nominal GDP, which is measured against the U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency. The other way to measure is purchasing power parity (PPP). This looks at the amount of housing or food that can be purchased for a fixed amount of money. On the surface this is the best way, but it suffers from two defects. One is that in a country as vast as the U.S. or China, the cost of housing or other commodities varies dramatically. Finding a single value for housing – and the myriad other data points – that includes San Francisco and Little Rock, Arkansas, can be done, if you accept that you will be way off lots of times. In addition, these are obviously manipulated for political reasons. Still, nominal GDP and PPP together gives you a good sense of the reality. In per capita nominal GDP, China is ranked 59 in the world, behind Costa Rica, Seychelles and the Maldives. In PPP terms, China is ranked 73, immediately behind Guyana and Equatorial Guinea.

By comparison, the United States ranks fifth nominally, behind Luxembourg, Switzerland, Ireland and Norway. The U.S. is seventh in PPP terms. Per capita GDP tends to be highest in relatively small, socially and ethnically homogenous countries, built around finance or a single high-value commodity. The U.S. is large and socially and ethnically diverse, with a vastly diverse economy. Under the circumstances, ranking fifth in the world is a significant achievement.

China’s rankings of 59 and 73, and the countries it ranks alongside, give you a very different picture of China’s status. On an aggregate basis, it is bested only by the United States. On a per capita basis, it ranks with much poorer Third World countries. So there are at least two ways to look at China: as a world-class economic power and as a Third World country.

It is possible to be both. When we aggregate China’s wealth, it has the ability to shape parts of the global economy as well as build a significant military capability, but when it aggregates economic value, it can do so only by transferring wealth to some sectors of society and away from other sectors. In other words, those who benefit from China’s strategy control and consume much greater wealth than the average GDP. By extension, those not part of this group possess a substantially smaller share. Put in comparative terms, the wealthiest Chinese enjoy a status on par with the wealthiest Americans; most others live worse than someone in Guyana or Equatorial Guinea.

All countries have inequality. It can sometimes have no effect, it can at other times destabilize the country. China has surged by creating a vast and significant economy. The majority of society not part of the coastal elite that manages international trade, banking and investment, or that is part of the military-industrial structure, live lives at least comparable to their equivalents in the United States. The large majority in the interior of the country lead lives on the order of Equatorial Guinea. Few Americans live lives on that order, although undoubtedly some can be found.

Per capita GDP provides an unreal number. But it does allow you to see how a nation compares with its peers. But then you must imagine the degree of inequality required to maintain the aggregate GDP and the manner in which wealth concentrates, and then consider the consequences of living well below the per capita income. In the case of China, it creates a vast but sometimes hard to see mass living like the Third World. In the U.S., also filled with inequality, the excluded still live lives in the context of Euro-American expectations. With exceptions, they do not live below the lives of those in Equatorial Guinea.

Aggregated GDP concentrated for high-tech or finance can have significant power in the world. The risk is social unrest by those excluded. It should be remembered that when Mao failed in an uprising in Shanghai, he took the Long March to the interior to raise a peasant army from those excluded from the wealth accumulating among some engaged in international trade along the coast, and he used that army to overthrow the regime they blamed for their misery. Xi Jinping of course knows the story well, and the crackdown on some of the wealthiest in China, done very visibly, is intended I think to demonstrate the Chinese Communist Party’s commitment to the poor. Whether he can do more of this without damaging the machine that created his country’s aggregate GDP is the question. I may be wrong in my speculation on the nature of his acts, but the fact is that the status of China, by any measure, has bred a wealth equal to the best in the world, and a poverty equal to the worst.

David Lifschultz
LIFSCHULTZ ORGANIZATION, Founded 1899
DAVID@LIFSCHULTZORGANIZATION.COM
Tel: (212) 688-8868

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