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The Tehran Test
By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT
Iraq’s prime minister flew out of Washington and did not go home. He is touring the region with a signed energy deal in one hand and a demand for Iran in the other.
The dinar edged up against the dollar this week. The rial, across the border, tells the opposite story, and that contrast is the whole point.
The tour
On Sunday Ali al-Zaidi sat with Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim in Doha. On Thursday he lands in Tehran, then Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia. He carries a new Energy and Development Fund and the deals that would route Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean, around the strait Iran has been choking since February. And he arrives in Tehran carrying a demand, not a request: that the regime make the militias it funds inside Iraq give up their hidden missiles before the September 30 deadline.
The cords
• Regional tour – Doha, then Tehran on Thursday, then Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia
• Militia deadline – September 30, with Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali saying they will hand their weapons to the state
• Power grid – roughly 5,000 megawatts lost after Iran cut the gas, Baghdad now buying power from Turkey and the Kurdistan Region
• Corruption sweep – more than $96 million in cash and $24 million in property, cars and gold seized in the al-Jumaili case
• Strikes – US Central Command hit southern Iran for a 10th straight night
The short version
That is the moves, and the moves are public. On Monday the dollar edged lower against the dinar in both Baghdad and Erbil. What we do not give away here is the connection: why the tour, the cut cords and the currency are one story, the historical precedent that shows how this kind of thing ends, and what a changing of the guard in Tehran would mean for the rial down the line. That is in today’s full briefing.
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A currency finds its real value the day the country behind it is finally let back into the system. Iraq is being walked back in now. The only question we keep asking is who was watching while it happened.
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