Ukraine War: Will the Russian Offensive Fail?


Source: Operation Disclosure | By Kirilo Sakhniuk, Freelance Journalist

Submitted on January 28, 2023

Zelenskyy: “We Will Win”. Will the Russian offensive fail?

The Ukrainian president has told Sky News he is “not interested” in meeting Vladimir Putin for peace talks, describing him as a “nobody” who lives in an “information bubble” and does not really know what’s happening on the battlefield. He also responded to suggestions of a Russian offensive in the coming weeks.

“I think we will manage, we will get support and we will win.” 

Answering the question about the readiness of Ukrainian troops for the Russian offensive, Zelenskyy noted that intense fighting has been going on in the east and south of the country for 6 days, and “we count their losses.” No other facts of preparation are mentioned. 

Currently, as never before, the military leadership of Ukraine should organize a strong defense of its positions as soon as possible. There will be a Russian offensive – this is a fact. 

Charles Michel, President of the European Council said that the next 2-3 weeks will be decisive in the war in Ukraine, and that “they will largely determine our future”. 


Both sides are under strong political pressure due to the need to show military successes, and in this sense, the morale of the troops is the most important factor. The Russian Armed Forces are struggling to demonstrate at least some evidence of a breakthrough in the Donbas, even if the successes in this area are much more modest than the initial combat goals.

The recent successes of the Russian army in the Donbas, no matter how insignificant they may be, should have a sobering effect. Russia’s attempt to deprive Ukraine of sovereignty failed, but the struggle for control over the territories continues, and with significant losses on both sides. 

Ukrainians need a significant replenishment of modern weapons. It needs much more than it is now. Ukrainian forces have been trying to withstand Russian pressure all this time, launching counterattacks to maintain a sense of offensive pace, partly because most of Ukraine’s military efforts depend on external support. 

At this time, the Russian military began to correct some of its main tactical miscalculations. They improved the coordination of intelligence and weapons of destruction, as well as increased the number of their forces during partial mobilization. 

“The military always says: never underestimate an enemy army. The Russians have made a lot of mistakes, but they are also gaining experience in this war. Of course, if we compare the Russian army in February and now, the Russians have learned a lot,”– American expert on defense, military strategy, nuclear weapons and national security, Professor Phillip Karber. 

This year may be decisive for Ukraine. However, it makes no sense to predict the results of the military confrontation. In such predictions, too much importance is attached to tactical events, rather than strategic results. The result of an armed conflict depends on many factors and is not predetermined at all. Often the turning points in the war become better understood only after time has passed. During operational pauses or lull, observers are tempted to state a stalemate. However, it is more likely that this war will drag on for a long time, as is often the case with such conflicts.



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