Sanctions to be Lifted on Iran? Anticipated Effect if it Happens would be Negligible

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Operation Disclosure | By David Lifschultz, Contributing Writer

Submitted on March 28, 2022

SANCTIONS TO BE LIFTED ON IRAN?

ANTICIPATED EFFECT IF IT HAPPENS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE

Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899

This is a very welcome event if happens but this will not have a significant effect on the oil price except to make oil more expensive contrary to the expectations of the Biden Administration who hoped this would reduce the oil price offsetting somewhat the cutoff of Russian oil supplies. Iran has been selling at least three million barrels a day of oil on the black market. Though over a period of a year another million barrels of of could be produced. And it may not happen as discussed in the next link as the Straits of Hormuz may be closed.

Will the Straits of Hormuz be Closed?

That black market in oil was established by Marc Rich who made a fortune selling Iranian sanctioned oil. The giant oil companies used to handle these transactions themselves but they offloaded it. It has been transferred to the Marc Rich club of oil traders. These oil traders are high leverage operators who are tottering near bankruptcy based on the recent large swings in oil prices where Brent nearly hit $140.00 a barrel before retreating. The commodity swings in commodities and the potential bankruptcy of these Marc Rich style oil traders are endangering the entire financial system. Even J. P. Morgan Chase is in shock.

JPMorgan Is the Biggest Counterparty for Nickel Tycoon’s Short Bets

Here are detailed analysis of the financial tribulations of the oil traders:

The US probe comes nearly 18 months after the Guardian revealed that Trafigura had been named in Brazil’s vast “Car Wash” corruption probe, alongside rival commodities traders Glencore and Vitol. It is unclear whether the CFTC’s investigation is related.

Trafigura investigated for alleged corruption, market manipulation

Surging natural gas prices trigger hundred of millions of dollars in margin calls, report says

https://www.economy.com/sbs

Businessman Marc Rich, who died yesterday in Switzerland at the age of 78, will be buried today in Israel. Rich died of a stroke in a hospital near his home in Lucerne. According to Forbes magazine, Rich’s 2012 assets totaled $2.5 billion. Rich was a controversial figure. On one hand, until he was pardoned in 2001, he was a fugitive who was charged in the United States in one of the biggest tax evasion cases in U.S. history and of trading with Ayatollah Khomeini’s Iran, despite U.S. sanctions.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-marc-rich-got-around-sanctions-2013-6

How is this done. In the middle of the Mediterranean Sea it is transferred from tanker to tanker in the middle of the night where the offloading is not visible to satellites. It is relabeled. The problem for Iran is that it must sell the oil at a discount of about 1/3 which the US will enable it now with sanctions lifting to be able to sell at full price. Hence, the price will rise adding to inflation.

There is no doubt Russia will be selling its oil if it wants to but at a large discount though the public will not hear about it.

EU foreign policy chief says Iran nuke deal ‘very close’

Tehran and other signatories nearing agreement after last-minute disruption

Iran and its partners are close to agreeing on terms to relaunch the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, EU chief of foreign affairs and security policy Josep Borrell told attendees at the Doha Forum international conference on Saturday.

“We are very close to an agreement and I hope it will be possible,” he said, suggesting to reporters that it could be “a matter of days” before the parties agreed to reanimate the deal. A recent hiccup in the negotiations regarding Russia’s ability to continue its existing trade relationship with Iran despite the sanctions imposed in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine has been resolved despite western concerns Moscow was deliberately holding up the deal.

So, what’s behind the US’ flip-flopping on the Iran nuclear deal?

Read more So, what’s behind the US’ flip-flopping on the Iran nuclear deal?

Borrell’s statement at Doha came shortly after a surprise appearance by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who echoed the US’s oft-repeated plea to oil-producing nations to increase production so that Russia cannot “blackmail” other countries by refusing to sell them fuel. However, thus far it has been Washington that has attempted to bar Moscow from selling its fuel, calling for a total ban of Russian oil and gas sales to the US. The country has continued to sell oil and gas to Europe, however, warning that should the continent attempt to join the US with an embargo of its own, they would only be hurting themselves.

Former president Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal shortly after taking office and Washington showed little interest in reviving it until Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in the Donbas and subsequent invasion of Ukraine triggered the spike in oil and gas prices.

While the US attempted to convince major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia to increase their output to compensate for the cutoff of trade relations with Russia, its pleas have largely fallen on deaf ears, making the White House seek help from countries it once considered enemies, including Venezuela and – potentially – Iran. Saudi oil production and refining facilities have also come under heavy attack in recent weeks from the Houthis, who are still languishing under a blockade by the Saudi-led coalition that prevents critical food and medical supplies from reaching them.

The JCPOA nuclear treaty put firm limits on the development of Iran’s nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions that have hamstrung the nation’s economy for years. While it was adopted in 2015, the sanctions were never completely rolled back, and bad blood has simmered among multiple parties as each accuses the other of failing to hold up their end of the bargain. The current iteration of the deal has been negotiated over the course of nearly 12 months.

David Lifschultz
THE LIFSCHULTZ ORGANIZATION
DAVID@LIFSCHULTZORGANIZATION.COM

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