Will NATO Black Sea Drills Trigger a World War?

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Operation Disclosure | By David Lifschultz, Contributing Writer

Submitted on July 9, 2021

WILL NATO BLACK SEA DRILLS TRIGGER A WORLD WAR?

Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899

In a battle for the Ukraine or Europe itself, the US or NATO would be utterly defeated by Russian forces. In 2014 when Brzezinski tried to lure Russia into another Afghanistan by the Kiev crisis he created, Russia was only 6 years into their 12 year modernization plan for their army which has now largely been completed. This time around they are ready but no one seems to care about the risks of all out war as Russia is being provoked into an action in the Black Sea to disrupt Nord Stream Two.  The deep state in the US does not understand that this will not weaken Russia as the oil and natural gas will be redirected and Europe will become totally dependent on the ability of the US to keep the Straits of Hormuz open which it cannot. This would doom Europe in a conflict with Russia just as it doomed Hitler who ran out of oil blockaded by the British fleet now in the hands of the US.

The combination of the Russians, Chinese and Iranians as allies based on their secret agreements control half the world’s oil supply and thus they control the world.  

Earlier this week Putin and Xi held a videoconference. One of the key items was quite significant: the extension of the China-Russia Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, originally signed 20 years ago.

A key provision: “When a situation arises in which one of the contracting parties deems that…it is confronted with the threat of aggression, the contracting parties shall immediately hold contacts and consultations in order to eliminate such threats.”

Russia and their controlled satellites in the east called their former republics control 25 million barrels a day in production, and Iran 22 million barrels a day at the Straits of Hormuz covered below and China 5 million barrels out of 100 million barrels of potential world production. If this were cut off the 1.5 to 2.5 quadrillion of world derivatives would implode crashing the world economy right off the bat. The Chinese industrial economy is far larger than the US forgetting about the fake figures with a trillion tons a year of steel production to 88 billion tons a year for the US, and car production is 25 million motor vehicles per year to our 8.8 million motor vehicles per year. This runs the whole industrial gamut. China is in the position of the US in 1939 who had control of 75% of world motor vehicle production alone based on the genius Henry Ford. It is a brand new ball game and the US power is a myth in a conventional sense. As to nuclear weapons, they will not be used as gas warfare was not used in World War Two. Both sides have them. That is why the comments below of Stalin are still relevant.

The comments of Joseph Stalin on the Korean War to Zhou Enlai on August 20, 1952.  It is vitally important to note that if Russia did not tie down 80% of the German Army there could have been no Normandy invasion. Not only that but Stalin timed Operation Bagration to Normandy so the Germans could not pull forces from the Russian front to knock out the Anglo-Saxons at Normandy. Bagration was named after the Tsarist General Peter Bagration of whom Napoleon said the Russians have no good generals with the sole exception of Bagration.

Here Stalin comments:

“The Americans are not able to carry on a big war. All their strength is in air raids and the atomic bomb. The Americans are merchants. It took the Germans twenty days to conquer France; the USA hasn’t been able to deal with little Korea for two years. What kind of force is that? You cannot win a war with the atomic bomb……..”

The Russians lent their crack air force from World War Two to the North Koreans though they were not allowed to follow the American planes over South Korean territory or the sea to retain anonymity. It was called the 64th Corps based in northern China which included fifteen Soviet air divisions and several anti-aircraft divisions. The identification marks MiG-15b planes were in Chinese and the pilots wore Chinese or Korean uniforms. The corps commander, Colonel E. G. Pepelyaev, shot down nineteen US aircraft, and other Soviet pilots achieved similar success. From the end of 1950 until the cessation of hostilities in July 1953, the 64th short down 1,309 US aircraft, of which 18 percent were downed by the Corps’ anti-aircraft batteries. Over the same period the Corps lost 319 planes.

Here are comments of Israeli intelligence on US military capacity. This is not up to date on its current feminization, transgenderization, and sodomization together with the teaching of hatred for whites in their critical race programs.

Yakov Kedmi: US Army a Paper Tiger Composed of Low Caste Mercenaries, Not a Serious Force!

Top Israeli Expert: US Can’t Defeat Iran in a Conventional War; Absolutely Ridiculous!

Kedmi is right to call the US the new Sodom and Gomorrah.

Yakov Kedmi: America Too Liberal, Elites Too Rotten and Society Too Multicultural To Survive!

Here is a review of US performance in Vietnam:

https://digitalcommons.lasalle.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1052&context=vietnamgeneration

The US can point to its superior technology in Iraq but the desert terrain was flat which was not the case in Vietnam or Iran so it is an entirely different picture. In addition, we in the deep state negotiated with Saddam Hussein and the generals an exit strategy for them with incentives and safe passage to a welcome spot. It was agreed to but Saddam reneged signing his death certificate, and the generals kept their agreement at Baghdad leaving on cue and the army disbanded. The Russians had been predicting Stalingrad defense of Bagdad but that did not take place for this reason. However, all of this was nearly twenty years ago and more if we look back on Bush I. Now, China and Russia are far more advanced than the US is in their weapons developments.

Note this new and very advanced missile of the Iranians to turn to the Iran subject:

https://www.english.alahednews.com.lb/46458/389

These can carry nuclear and hydrogen bombs that our intel sources, which are better than the CIA, say were acquired from North Korea which is why Israel was pressuring the US to destroy North Korea when Trump just came in.  The key for China and Russia is their Iranian ally can shut the Straits and crash the 1.5 quadrillion derivative market destroying the US economy and the rest of the world. Note the relationship between the 93 trillion world GDP and the derivatives.

The weapons that Iran has lining the Straits of Hormuz are formidable as follows. It is noted that former Secretary of the Navy John Lehman incorporated most of these ideas in a speech he gave on modernizing the American Navy.

“The United States does not have the military power to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and its carrier task forces must flee if they are within range of Russian and Chinese anti-ship missiles lining the coast of Iran which are the most advanced in the world.” General Barry McCaffrey, former Assistant to the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS); and Director of Strategic Plans and Policy, Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a conversation with David Lifschultz at lunch at the Harvard Club.” In addition, in a conversation with David Lifschultz the chief derivative trader in oil for Goldman Sachs said if the Straits were cut off oil would rise to $500.00 to a $1,000.00 a barrel and then crash the derivative market taking down the world economy as Warren Buffett has pointed out.

Here is a brief summary of the military analysis of General Barry McCaffrey at the Harvard Club lunch with me in which he discusses the strategic inability of the United States to keep the Straits of Hormuz open.  While the general’s comments were very brief, I filled in all the gaps based on my own similar evaluation.

The aircraft carrier became the new weapon of naval war replacing the battleship as the premier weapon for the simple reason that the planes were able to destroy the battleships before the battleships came near enough to destroy the aircraft carriers. This made battleships, cruisers and destroyers obsolete.

The United States ended the World War Two essentially in control of the all the seas and their main instrument of control were these aircraft carrier task forces. The US took this control from the exhausted and bankrupt British Empire and inherited their long built Empire with the empires of Japan, Germany, France and the Netherlands. The control mechanism was the US control of the world financial system established at Bretton Woods constructed around the CHIPS and Swift clearing systems where 88% of world financial transactions has a dollar on one side. The UN and World Court were merely parts of the control mechanism where the small nations rights were really imaginary as we see in the case of Iran.  

When the Korean war broke out with the surprise invasion of South Korea in June, 1950, the other key component of the United States winning World War Two of land based air power was quickly nullified as most of the friendly air bases in South Korea were overrun. (Tanks armies were the second component of World War Two military power now nullified by advanced Kornet missiles. Submarines were the third.) The United States Seventh Fleet quickly arrived at the scene to provide that air power to the US and South Korean armies stranded defending at the Pusan Perimeter which saved the day. It was from that moment to the present that air power projection against land targets, rather than the fleet battles in the deep blue water, would be the main justification for aircraft carrier task forces. Naval aircrews from the Seventh Fleet’s Task Force 77 flew 275,000 sorties amounting to 53% of the close air support and 40% of the interdictions sorties in Korea.

Air power was a major factor in World War Two. Field Marshall Fritz Erich von Manstein outnumbered troops defeated the Russians at the Crimea saved by Baron Wolfram von Richthohen Fliegerkorps VIII whose air force annihilated half the Russian forces. There Fritz earned his Marshall’s Baton. In a reversal at Normandy, Field Marshall Rommel in his famous message to Hitler predicting an allied breakthrough stated that allied air supremacy was smashing their best trained troops and the situation was hopeless. As we shall discuss later, the United States is banking on air power to stop the Russian Army in Europe today in the event of an attack but there will be no airports whether military or commercial within ten minutes of the commencement of war as Russian Iskander missiles carrying tactical nuclear warheads or conventional will knock them all out nullifying NATO’s air power. Tank warfare is similarly obsolete based on the improved Kornet missile and advanced silent submarines and their advanced missiles will control the seas eliminating the aircraft carriers the other major component of World War Two power. The problem is that the western armies are preparing for World War Two and not World War Three. As such, a look at NATO and its dilapidated German force demonstrates that this deterrent is but a figment of the imagination and would be wiped out within two to three weeks according to German generals we have discussed this with. In other words, in a war in Europe the three components of World War Two military power power the aircraft carrier nullified by submarines, tanks nullified by the Kornet missile and air power nullified by the destruction of the air fields would not stand in the way of a Russian Army that could reach the English Channel in two weeks.

During the Vietnam War the US Navy similarly projected air power in the newly reconstituted Task Force 77 participating in the sustained air campaigns such as Rolling Thunder and Linebacker. From 1964 to 1973 Task Force 77 flew hundreds of thousands of attack sorties against targets in North and South Vietnam. In Operation Desert Storm in Iraq the United States Navy gathered six aircraft carriers with over 400 aircraft into the Red and Arabian Seas as part of the coalition air campaign. The aircraft carriers remained in the region participating in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflict.

During the period from World War Two until recently the Navy operated close to shore with little to fear. The Russians and Chinese have developed anti-ship missiles that line the coast of China creating a 2,000 kilometer fire zone where no aircraft carrier is safe according to open sources. We understand that the range is much further than this from informed sources. If we go just by the 2,000 kilometer line it includes a large part Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.. And if we go according current informed estimates 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, it will include all of these countries as well as the waterways. It would jeopardize our bases in countries as Japan, the Philippines, etc. which would be targeted in a war. 

The Chinese anti-navy missile and airpower is dispersed, mobile, and designed either to be hidden or sheltered in hardened and underground facilities. For example, China’s DF-21D anti-ship missile is based on a medium-range missile that is moved about and launched from a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). Most of China’s land-based anti-ship land attack cruise missiles are also launched from a TEL. China’s maritime strike airpower, which includes most of its fleet of Flanker fighter aircraft, can be based at scores of air bases, most of which are hardened against attack, some to a very high extent. These are the forces that can reach out 2,000 kilometers if not more.

It is important to note that our new F-35C strike fighter for our aircraft carriers has a maximum combat radius 1,100 kilometers which is about the same as the older F/A 18 EF. Even when armed with standoff missiles, these combat radii won’t be adequate to keep the aircraft carriers out of range of land-based threats to aircraft carriers. In addition, most of our bases are vulnerable within the 2,000 kilometer range and all of them except in Australia would be within Chinese missile defensive range at 4,000 kilometers. 

We recently watched the Tomahawk missiles strike Syria but their range is only 1,600 kilometers which are carried by our cruisers and destroyers which makes them worthless against a land opponent with longer distance missile capacity as China presently has lining their shore.

In other words, the nearer bases are vulnerable and the farther bases are too far out for our short range designed strike aircraft. This means our entire offensive capacity in Asia is geared to short-range conflict that we are hopelessly outmatched in that almost all our short range bases stand to be immediately wiped out by Chinese defensive missiles and our long range bases do not have sufficient long range strike aircraft. We must consider all our aircraft carriers as short range as they are limited by the range of their aircraft and therefore useless in future ground support operations, And as far as their use for patrolling the seas the aircraft carriers are vulnerable to advanced Russian and Chinese silent submarines with anti-ship missiles. In other words, the United States has lost control of the seas and all of its commerce is in jeopardy in the event of a major war. Its military industrial complex that depends on parts from Asia could be shut down within two weeks for those that rely on just in time inventory control.

The US air capacity is about 12-1 short range to long range strike aircraft. This means that our enormous air power in Europe stands to be wiped out when the Russians hit the air fields with tactical nuclear weapons, and our long range strike aircraft is totally inadequate for the defence of Europe. Our entire defence budget is, therefore, warped and irrational.

The cost of a Gerald R. Ford-call aircraft carrier is 15.1 billion dollars which breaks down to 11.8 billion for the carrier and 3.3 billion for 24 F-35C strike fighters. We could buy for that some 27 of the new long-range strike aircraft at a planned cost of 550 million each. The United States has to immediately shift its procurement budgets to try to remedy this mismatch.

Thus far General McCaffrey analysis and it continues. 

The Russians have delivered large quantities of Sunburn missiles to Iran designed to fly as low as nine feet at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity. They can be fired from a flatbed truck which makes them mobile. It is perfect for flying into the Straits of Hormuz which is no more than forty miles wide while the actual transit space is about two miles at points. This missile fired from the Iranian shores will punch a hole the size of a room in any ship in the Straits in a fraction of a second. The SS-N-22 sunburn supersonic anti-ship missile has been described as the most lethal missile in the world today designed to defeat the Aegis radar defence system of the United States and subsequent renditions. The Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missile (speed Mach 2.9) line the Iranian northern shore. No declassified studies of the ability of these missile to penetrate an aircraft carrier defence have been issued, but it would appear that a large barrage of these missiles cannot be defended against by any known method but jamming equipment. However, we have the example of the Russian missile designed with anti-jamming equipment hitting an Israeli frigate (INS Hanit, July 14, 2006) off the shore of Lebanon during the Israeli attack on the Hezbollah. It sailed through the most advanced US and Israeli jamming equipment. The Chinese have these missiles.

The United States has tested successfully in 2013 the X-47B experimental unmanned aircraft though the trouble with them is that its range is only 1,900 kilometers versus about 1,100 for manned jets, but that greater range is insufficient to operate outside even the 2,000 kilometer missile defensive wall of Russian and Chinese missiles and these anti-ship missiles are said to have a much greater distance capability. There was a phenomenal exhibition of Russian military advances when their equipment downed a Stealth Drone and effected its landing in Iran enabling the Russians to put their hands on this advanced technology. The implications of this military coup could be dire for any adversary in that a nuclear tipped missile fired at Iran could be diverted and returned to its source. Nor have we discussed here how the Russians have sealed their airspace with defensive missiles (S-500) ending MAD. Nor their tens of millions of nuclear bomb shelters for their people.

This ends the General’s analysis summed by saying in a war the US fleet must flee away from the Straits of Hormuz or be annihilated, and the US cannot keep the Straits open.

If the Iranians shut down the Straits of Hormuz, 22% of the world oil supply will be cut off.  The consequences will be that the oil price will rise to over $500.00 to $1000.00 a barrel and the world economy will start to implode with all the financial markets crashing as in 1929 as the 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives start a chain reaction of destruction as a financial weapon of mass destruction. In this case, the shortage of oil unlike the shortage of credit in 2008 destroyed as it was cannot be made up by a fiat instruments. The oil is not there. Therefore, this derivative market is a national security issue. The manipulations of markets is also a serious issue as it is illegal but there does not exist any serious application of the security law of the derivative market. Until these derivatives are wound down, Iran controls the entire world whether the US Carthaginian Congress wants to recognize it or not. This is the reason the US wants to oust the present leadership in Iran and not nuclear weapons that are available on the black market from Pakistan and North Korea as the Straits closing would collapse the US economy.

The above comments were addressing the article below:

July 8, 2021

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Iran’s Pretense of Strength

Iranian threats don’t match up with Iranian actions.

By Hilal Khashan

Iran presents itself to the outside world as the mighty Islamic Republic, built on strength, perseverance and independence. But in reality, Iran is a weak country. Its military hardware is obsolete, and its economy is hurting. It became a regional power only by default following Iraq’s loss in the 1991 Gulf War and the subsequent crippling blockade. The uprisings that shattered several Arab countries didn’t affect Iran, which then gained a modicum of power and influence in the region, despite its internal weakness. Iran thus succeeded in transforming its mediocre capabilities into assets in a turbulent Middle East, but this should not be confused with real strength.

(click to enlarge)

Empty Rhetoric

Iranian officials often issue fiery statements against the West threatening violence and retribution for any moves targeting Tehran. A former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for example, threatened to level Tel Aviv and Haifa if Israel attacked Iran. In 2018, the IRGC’s commander-in-chief promised to annihilate Israel, saying, “If there is war, the result will be your destruction.” That same year, the head of the Iranian army predicted that Israel would disappear in 25 years. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also threatened to wipe Israel off the map.

But despite their aggressive rhetoric, the Iranians know that acting on their threats could provoke a response they’d rather avoid. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, by a U.S. drone in 2020 as a declaration of war and promised to have no mercy on his killers. But Iran’s retaliation – hitting two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops and having its proxy Popular Mobilization Forces fire rockets at a military base near Baghdad – was a feeble response to the murder of the second-most powerful person in the country.

Indeed, Iran’s leadership understands the rules of the game, and it abides by them. It knows that U.S. President Joe Biden does not want war or regime change in Tehran. Former President Donald Trump committed to withdrawing U.S. troops from the Middle East and, in 2020, ordered that the number of soldiers stationed in Iraq be slashed by one-third.

The Iranians, meanwhile, have also learned lessons from past experience. In 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts frigate hit a naval mine laid by Iran in the Persian Gulf during the Tanker War. The U.S. then launched Operation Praying Mantis, which sank six Iranian ships and destroyed two oil rigs. In 2019, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bragged about the Israeli Air Force’s ability to reach any target in Iran, which could not respond in kind. A year earlier, three Israeli F-35 fighter jets flew over Tehran and returned safely to base. Israel launched hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian convoys loaded with weapons for Hezbollah, and neither Iran nor Hezbollah dared to fight back. Last month, a former Iranian intelligence minister admitted that Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency has penetrated Iran and is increasing its influence, especially among Iran’s minority groups. Israel’s assassination last November of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, known as the father of Iran’s nuclear program, revealed the extent of Iran’s vulnerability to Israeli subversion.

Hungry for Recognition

In 2014, when the U.S. assembled a coalition to try to oust the Islamic State from Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, Iran wanted to join it, in part to reduce its global isolation and in part to deflect attention from its nuclear program. The U.S., however, preferred to engage instead with Iran’s proxy group, the Iraq-based Popular Mobilization Forces.

For the anti-IS coalition, there was little direct collaboration with Iran. The U.S. Air Force provided support to an offensive that included Iraqi army troops, peshmergas and PMF units to oust IS from Amerli, a Shiite Turkmen town in northern Iraq some 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Iran’s border. But for the most part, the U.S. opposed Iran’s involvement. Washington’s view was that both the Islamic State and Iran presented serious threats. Its opposition drove Iran to denounce U.S. military action in Syria and Iraq as a violation of their national sovereignty and international law.

Iran claims it defeated IS and other radical Islamic movements in Syria and Iraq. But in Syria, government forces and their Iranian allies were on the defensive until 2015, when the Russian air force joined the fighting. And in Iraq, the decisive factors in the Islamic State’s defeat were the U.S. Air Force and the Kurdish troops on the ground.

Contrary to official claims, Iran is eager for Israeli recognition as an equal regional power. Israel, however, prefers to negotiate peace treaties with Arab countries, not Iran, which had no role in the Arab-Israeli conflict and recognized Israel as a de facto entity in 1950.

To make itself appear more powerful, Iran grossly exaggerates the value of its weapons industry. In 2007, it introduced a copy of the 1950s Northrop F-5 fighter, and in 2014, it replicated a U.S. RQ-170 drone that landed in Iranian territory in 2011. Aviation experts say the Iranian version is nothing more than a propaganda tool. Similar doubts shroud Iran’s Qaher 313, allegedly a fifth-generation stealth plane that looks more like a replica of the F-313 trainer.

Weak Retaliation

Despite their bombastic rhetoric, Iran and its allies regularly fail to retaliate against attacks on their personnel and assets. When Israel killed top Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh in 2008, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said he would destroy the Israeli army, but of course that never happened. Similarly, the PMF condemned last month’s U.S. airstrikes against its bases in the Iraqi-Syrian border area but refrained from retaliating.

For the past two years, Israel has been attacking Iranian ships transporting strategic supplies for the Syrian regime and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran calibrates its reaction to avoid casualties or severe damage to Israeli ships. Iran has been exceptionally keen on not sliding into a full-scale war with the U.S. or Israel, cleverly using Iraq’s PMF and Yemen’s Houthis to wage asymmetric attacks on its behalf.

The PMF use unguided rockets and drones against U.S. bases in Iraq to avoid inflicting casualties and provoking retaliation. When firing rockets at the vast U.S. Embassy in Baghdad or military bases housing U.S. troops, the PMF makes sure they land outside the perimeter of the facilities. These attacks are a means of communication, not a serious attempt to inflict harm.

Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports have severely hurt its already weak economy. Iran’s oil exports dropped from 2.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to 300,000 barrels per day in 2020. (They rose recently to 750,000 barrels per day.) Iran responded cautiously by attacking Saudi and Emirati oil tankers in the Persian Gulf because it knows that they would not retaliate, unlike the U.S. and Israel. The Houthis continue to launch frequent attacks on air bases and other military and infrastructure facilities in southwest Saudi Arabia. Members of the PMF in southern Iraq attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province in 2019. The Saudis do not respond to provocations from Iraq, and their airstrikes against the Houthis have not affected the Houthis’ control over most of Yemen.

Iran is a country engulfed in economic problems ranging from deep-seated corruption to debilitating U.S. sanctions to economic domination by religious institutions and IRGC-affiliated companies. Its conservative clerics and senior commanding officers have put up a facade of military prowess that has been less than convincing for critically minded Iranians. Still, the regime in Tehran remains secure, despite the occasional protest. The ruling elite seem convinced that Iran has a bright future ahead, while the reformists face an uphill battle to secularize the country.

David Lifschultz
THE LIFSCHULTZ ORGANIZATION
DAVID@LIFSCHULTZORGANIZATION.COM

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