The Sparks that Can Cause World War Three

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Operation Disclosure | By David Lifschultz, Contributing Writer

Submitted on April 20, 2021

THE SPARKS THAT CAN CAUSE WORLD WAR THREE

Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899

As the United States has refused to negotiate with Iran unless they bring themselves back into compliance with the JCPOA, and Iran states they will not negotiate unless America lifts the sanctions, the spectre of a World War Three scenario haunts the world. In Europe we have the Ukraine war pending, and in Asia we have the Taiwan war pending. These three can spark together World War Three.  In footnote one we cover the Ukrainian front, and the Iranian front is self-explanatory by the following article as well as in footnote 2.

Iran Rules Out Any Negotiations With U.S. Unless Sanctions Lifted

We can foresee if war breaks out in the Ukraine and Taiwan that Iran will block the Straits of Hormuz. Its consequences are outlined in footnote two in that such a move by Iran will bring down the world financial system by triggering a derivative explosion.

It is interesting that the Ukraine has awakened to the possibility of Russia seizing the water supplies that they cut off from the Crimea to starve them of water and we quote next a Daily Mail article. This is true which we have already reported.

Four Russian Ropucha class ships have gathered in the Black Sea, joining more than 15 other warships, in preparation for an attack,The Mirrorreported;

‘Ukrainian military take these ships very seriously,’ an Ukrainian officer told the paper.  ‘We estimate one of the Russian scenarios could be an amphibious and air assault from occupied Crimea to seize water supply facilities in south Ukraine to provide water to Crimea.’ The newspaper reported sources as saying the ‘most likely’ attack plan would be a maritime and land assault on southern Ukraine from Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.  Poor weather may have delayed any potential land attack by several weeks.  Following Russia’s invasion, Ukraine cut off much of the water supply to Crimea, creating a dire shortage.  (DKL: There is a crisis brewing in Egypt over the Ethiopians cutting off the water by their dam that could starve to death half the 100 million people in Egypt for which reason Donald Trump told Ethiopia that they should expect the dam to be bombed by Egypt. It is not unexpected that Russia should move to take this water supply rather than let the Crimean population perish.  That was going to happen anyway before the recent Ukrainian provocation.  If this water is not freed up, then it is certain there will be a war over it in the Ukraine after the ground dries. That may result in the whole Ukraine being freed from the oligarchs stealing of all its wealth set up by the US in 2014 to take care of Hunter Biden. By the way, our sources say that the delay in leaving Afghanistan gives Hunter an opportunity to grab a few billion dollars for his pa out of the CIA-DIA Afghanistan heroin operation. If the present Taliban operate as Mullah Omar, then that will be the end of the CIA operation.

US condemns Russia plan to block Black Sea as ‘unprovoked escalation’

We wish to expand on Scott’s comments. Since China has the finest intelligence apparatus in the world, and unlike the US a homogenous and loyal population, the Apple CEO says not only is China the greatest industrial power in the world but the greatest engineering nation in the world. He said the US does not have the engineering depth for major innovations and he has to go tap the great depth in China of engineers which is unparalleled in the world to work out engineering problems. In the US major engineering firms have usually 1/3 Americans, 1/3 Chinese and 1/3 Indian as few want to be engineers in the US but rather go to Wall St. using stochastic control theory to manipulate markets where the preponderance of US bank credit goes into this wheeling and dealing rather than productive investment. Obviously, the US cannot secure our military, intellectual property of vital tech secrets under this scenario of a US population torn by intramural hatreds.

China has not shown their military hand in a visible way since 2006 when they surfaced one of their silent submarines near aircraft carrier task force unseen and unheard. Their military advances since then have been tremendous and now exceeds the military power of the US. Their secrets are kept in their nation.

A Chinese Submarine Stalked an American Aircraft Carrier

Why would China send a submarine to stalk an American carrier? It’s likely China regularly does this, but does not announce the event by surfacing within visual range. China almost certainly did so to prove a point: at the time the United States had announced it would send a ship into the South China Sea on a Freedom of Navigation exercise to challenging China’s territorial claims. China demonstrated not only was it shadowing one of America’s ten aircraft carriers, it could get within torpedo range if it wanted.

The key here, though, is missed. The aircraft carrier task forces have to fear not the torpedo but more so the missiles on the submarines. This incident caused an emergency meeting in the office of the Chief of Naval Operations where VIPs flew in from all over the country to attend it as there was such a panic.

`Then, in 2007 a much greater threat to the US was the destruction by a Chinese land missile of a satellite in space which was the beginning of a real star wars problem. The US depends on satellites for directing its missiles such as the ICBMs and if these satellites are destroyed it must at least delay the launching of all missiles guided by the satellites which includes intermediate missiles until the ground crews can set up the direction from the ground. By that time it may well be too late as it could take 20 minutes to an hour to achieve. 4,581 miles exist between Moscow and New York City which can be traversed by a 16,400 mile an hour Russian Topol M ICBM in about 28 minutes. We understand that they go faster but this is the speed in Wikipedia. Of course, offshore Russian submarine missiles can reach their targets within two or three minutes.  The latter missiles can knock out all our ICBMs before they can even take off and more so if satellite guidance is emulsified in space. The US submarine missiles can be taken care of by the Russian S-600 defensive missile. We use published Russian missile times as the Chinese have concealed most of what they have.

We quote from the Popular Mechanics article below. However, we do not agree with this article at all. The only naval weapon of any use in the next war is the submarine. Since the US does not have any defensive missiles of much value which includes the antiquated Aegis Combat System, the submarine missiles will knock out right away all surface vessel plying the seas. We estimate the Chinese have over 150 submarines and that will double over the next ten years. They will have complete control of the seas and no surface vessels of a belligerent will be able to traverse the seas. The just in time American inventory control will have to shut down military production within two weeks at the commencement of hostilities. It certainly will not be able to resupply Taiwan or block the Straits of Malacca or other commercial pathways to and from China. It is true the US submarines will also knock out the vessels of adversaries. There will be no shipping via sea in the next war.

In the next 10 years, China will have more submarines than the U.S. Navy, as that country continues to both grow and upgrade its undersea fighting force. The U.S. will have 66 subs of all types by 2030, compared to China’s projected 76. But while the Navy’s submarine fleet will be the third largest in the world, after China and North Korea, raw numbers don’t quite tell the whole story. (We are quoting from the Popular Mechanics article that we do not agree with at all.)

I thought I would add these comments by way of introduction to Scott Ritter’s articles below.

America can successfully defend Taiwan against China – but only in its dreams

Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer and author of ‘SCORPION KING: America’s Suicidal Embrace of Nuclear Weapons from FDR to Trump.’ He served in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, in General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector. Follow him on Twitter @RealScottRitter

19 Apr, 2021 20:36

: A F-16 fighter jet lands on a highway used as an emergency landing strip during the Han Kuang military exercise in Madou, Tainan, southern Taiwan, April 12, 2011©REUTERS/Nicky Loh

The US military has deteriorated to the point that the only way it could win a simulated war game in which it was called on to defend Taiwan from a ‘Chinese invasion’ force was by inventing capabilities it does not yet possess.

In 2018 and 2019, the US Air Force conducted detailed simulated war games that had its forces square off against those of China. On both occasions, the US was decisively defeated, the first time challenging the Chinese in the South China Sea, and the second time defending Taiwan – which China sees as an integral part of its territory – against a Chinese invasion. 

In 2020, the US repeated the Taiwan scenario, and won – but only barely. The difference? In both 2018 and 2019, it played with the resources it had on hand. Last year, it gave itself a host of new technologies and capabilities that are either not in production or aren’t even planned for development. In short, the exercise was as far removed from reality as it could get. The fact is the US can only successfully defend Taiwan from a full-scale Chinese invasion in its dreams.

What the current war games underscored is that, as currently configured, equipped, and deployed, the US Air Force lacks the required combination of lethality and sustainability necessary to wage full-scale conventional conflict against a peer-level foe. The mix of aircraft currently in the US Air Force inventory was unable to ‘compete’ in the war game – even the current model of F-35 was excluded as not being up to the task of fighting and surviving against the Chinese military. Instead, the wargamers completely altered the composition and operational methodology of the US Air Force, providing it with combat aircraft that are either still on the drawing board, or have not even been considered for procurement yet. They also completely altered the ‘layout’ of forces, manufacturing new airfields that do not exist, and connecting them with command-and-control capabilities just as fictional.

There was a time when the notion of US air superiority, if not supremacy, was virtually guaranteed on any battlefield that could be imagined. This was especially true in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the corresponding disintegration of Russian combat power. The US was able to hold onto this edge over the course of the 1990s simply by exploiting the advantages accrued from years of investment made in modern aircraft and combat systems during the Cold War, and the fact no other nation was able and/or willing to invest in their respective military to challenge the US in that arena.

The events of 9/11 proved to be seminal in the decline of American military power. The United States poured its entire national security focus into defeating the forces of ‘global terrorism,’ and engaged itself in the futile act of ‘nation-building’ in Afghanistan and Iraq. In doing so, the needs of one combat command – US Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for US military interests in the Middle East and Southwest Asia – took priority over all others. 

Gone were the days when the US spent billions of dollars preparing to fight a major war in the Pacific, another major war in Europe, and a ‘holding action’ in the Middle East. In the post-9/11 world, the sole focus of the US military became low-intensity conflict and counterinsurgency. Every aspect of military existence – recruiting, training, organization, equipment, employment, and sustainability – was defined by the needs of CENTCOM in fighting the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. If something did not further the CENTCOM mission, it was either discarded or modified so it would.

The US military spent itself in the CENTCOM area of operations – physically, fiscally, morally, and intellectually. Every single principle of war necessary for a military to prevail was sacrificed in the deserts and mountains of Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Today, with the political decision having been made to depart Afghanistan, and a similar decision being brooded regarding Iraq and its corollary conflict, Syria, the US military is a fundamentally broken institution. It lost its ‘forever wars’ in the Middle East and Southwest Asia by not winning. As such, the senior leadership at the helm of the US military has been conditioned to accept defeat as de rigueur; it comes with the territory, a reality explained away by lying – either to yourself, your superiors, or both. Too many successful careers were created on the backs of lies repackaged as truth, of defeats sold as victories, as deficits portrayed as assets.

The man they call Tiger: The diplomat who stood up to America’s bullies becomes China’s new and unlikely hero

In many ways, the recently concluded US Air Force war game is a byproduct of this psychosis – an exercise in self-delusion, in which reality is replaced by a fictional world where everything works as planned, even if it does not exist. The US Air Force cannot wage a successful war against China today. Nor can it do so against Russia. Its ability to sustain a successful air campaign against either Iran or North Korea is likewise questionable. This is the kind of reality that would, in a world where facts mattered, cost a lot of senior people their jobs, in uniform and out.

The culpability of this systemic incompetence is so widespread, however, that there can be no serious accounting for what has transpired. Instead, the US Air Force, having been confronted by the reality of its shortcomings, ‘invents’ a victory. In and of itself, this ‘victory’ is meaningless. If China were to invade Taiwan, there is literally nothing short of employing nuclear weapons the US could do to stop it. But by ‘beating’ China using fictional resources, the US Air Force has created a blueprint of procurement that will define its budgetary requests for the next decade.

In doing so, however, the US Air Force is simply repeating the mistakes of the CENTCOM-driven ‘forever war,’ focusing on achieving ‘victory’ in one theater of operations at the exclusion of all others. By building a fictitious ‘model’ military for the purpose of prevailing in a simulated war game in which every advantage was conceded to the United States, the US Air Force is simply continuing the pattern of behavior built around lies, deceit, and self-deception that has guided it, and its senior officers and civilian leadership, for the past two decades. The end result will be that, even if the Air Force gets all the tools and capabilities it claims it needs to win in any ‘defense of Taiwan’ war game (and it will not), the only way it can prevail in any such conflict will be in its dreams.

David Lifschultz
THE LIFSCHULTZ ORGANIZATION
DAVID@LIFSCHULTZORGANIZATION.COM

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