Operation Disclosure | by David Lifschultz, Contributing Writer
Submitted on April 5, 2021
U.S. WAR STRATEGY
Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899
The new plan for the US to stop Nord Stream Two is to stoke a war in the Ukraine. The first part of it was to strangle the Crimea by shutting down its river source within the Ukraine and stoking up Ukrainian military action against the Donbass and the Luhansk areas. This plan was hatched in advance of the stolen Biden election by Nuland-Kagan as their neocons dominated the Trump Administration which dominance continues into the Biden Administration. Nuland is directly linked into the Trotskyite oligarch traitors in Russia.
If you talk to Nuland and Kagan they have the utmost contempt for Vladimir Putin. They think of him as a fool. In the 2014 crisis in the Ukraine he was so easy to hoodwink. They had the puppet Obama call Putin at the most critical moment where a barrage of rifle fire from the government would have put down the demonstration, and say to Putin that he would guarantee that the Putin friendly government would stay in power so he need not shoot hundreds of demonstrators. Putin trusted Obama and the shooting started on the other side toppling Viktor Yanukovych. The same cowardice by Putin as explained by Nuland took place in Georgia when Putin was about to run for it when the army countermanded his retreat orders and invaded South Ossetia to protect them as Putin has failed to do for Russians in the Ukraine based on Nuland’s analysis of Putin as basically a coward.
It is interesting that the key telephone call to the Russian Army a few days ago was to its chief of staff was made by the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff going around Blinken and Biden who mean nothing. The US could not care less about what Putin thinks and they regard him as a weakling as was seen when Biden read the script calling him a killer with no soul and nothing at all happened of any consequence. It is rumoured that Sergey Shoygu, the head of the Russian military, will succeed Putin sometime in the not too far distant future. There is also no respect by and large in the US for Putin as he has also reflected serious weakness in tolerating the Trotskyite traitors in Russia that they call oligarchs who stole half the country. Nuland is planning a coup d’etat through them and they are waiting for the right time. They are in constant secret contact. Nuland marvels that these allies of the US from the Yelstin period are still there and this shows again the weakness of Putin who cannot even oust mortal enemies surrounding him in his own country in Kagan’s eyes. Putin has tried to balance them with his security services and military but the latter do not have much respect for him according to Nuland.
In fairness to Putin, he only was half way into the modernization of his army and did not feel strong enough to stop anything in the Ukraine or Georgia if it became a generalized war in 2014. He had concentrated on defensive and offensive missile development from 2000 to 2008 and then commenced the modernization of Russian ground forces. So in 2014 he was only 6 years into the 12 year ground forces plan that would be completed in the year 2020. Yet the perception of weakness governs the attitude of the Biden Administration and they aim to treat him with continued contempt as a light weight.
This places the world in a potentially dangerous situation. The US may have miscalculated here in two ways. First, Putin may be ready to act now, and if he is not, he may be removed by the Russian military who last time under General General Aleksei Brisilov essentially removed the Tsar who wanted to sue for peace. The Russian Military and the security services are not happy that these Trotskyite traitors who are agents of Baron Jacob Rothschild are calling the shots over the domestic economy and finds this strangely similar to the Russian traitors Leon Trotsky, and his ensemble together with Lenin who were agents of Baron Eduard de Rothschild who financed through Parvus the Bolshevik Revolution. After all, these modern corrupt aliens stole half the country.
With the onset of revolution in Russia, Brusilov argued for the Tsar’s abdication. Throughout this period, Brusilov proved sympathetic to revolutionary aspirations. That same year in May, Brusilov was appointed Commander in Chief of the Russian Army.
The analysis below is seriously flawed as it does not understand the military advances of Russia in offensive and defensive missiles and submarines that have placed if far above the American and Chinese military power even combined and confuses quantity with quality. But the most important insight that we can gain from the analysis is that the US recognizes its own serious weakness and plans to complement its forces with those of allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and hopefully India and NATO on the other side of the globe. The planning here is purely geopolitical balancing of power but it does not work with Russia outbalancing all the other side with its advanced technologies.
The 2014 tilt of China toward Russia as an ally for their natural resources to shift away from the sea trade vulnerabilities is what has caused paranoia in the US military establishment as this upsets the perceived balance of power and this is why the military, CIA, etc. illegally had the election stolen from Trump. He wanted to disengage and double the industrial power of the US as an offset of the Russian-Chinese. He wanted to do this by bringing back 10 million cars a year of automobile production and create tens of millions of jobs. This President Trump would have applied to all outsourced industries and would have eliminated all outsourcing overseas of parts as in 1939. The CIA wants to keep the farm outs overseas to maintain their alliances. Also, if the US does not have allies in Europe and Asia the projection of force becomes almost impossible as at Normandy. The only reason the Normandy invasion was successful was that 80% of he German Army was tied up in Russia and the rest were for the most part inferior units. And the Russians launched the successful operation Bagration at the same time as Normandy which prevented the Germans from transferring eastern divisions to Normandy. If the whole German Army faced the American-British invasion forces, they would have failed miserably. In other words, if the Russians defeat the European forces there is not a chance of the recovery of Europe for the US.
The Trump approach was correct as the US cannot project power in its depleted state and the other forces in NATO would have been forced to ante up the money to rebuild their militaries as the US withdrew their forces to divert spending to military weapons procurement. The US by giving up their power of production that enabled it to win World War Two by outproducing their enemies, and gain world dominance, has depleted its own strength and is heading for oblivion as a world power as no one respects its growing weakness. The alliances actually are only a stopgap for the massive decline that is happening in the US before our very eyes.
CMP Update: World’s Top 10 Militaries of 2021
In 2015, I attempted to quantify the military power of the world’s states with an index of Comprehensive Military Power. You can read the post, including the detailed methodology, here.
Since then, its conclusions – broadly speaking, that China and Russia had about a third of US military power in the mid-2010s, while the next-tier Powers had a third of Russia/China’s military power in turn – has been replicated in a couple of other indices:
… and was to correctly predict the outcome of Karabakh War II.Nonetheless, five years is a significant period of time in world geopolitics, especially as concerns rapidly modernizing China, so an update is warranted (note there have been a few minor methodological changes*).
Top Military Powers of 2020
Performance of the US, Russia/USSR, China, and India in terms of total CMP from 1940-2020.
This table contains the CMP of the world’s states where the US is normalized to 100 every single year.
The most notable change, obviously, has been China’s rapid gain on the US (though it not been more impressive than its economic gain – cognizant of the perceived rule of military overspending on the Soviet collapse, it has soft peddled this aspect of its convergence). Russia has paddled water relative to the US. India’s growth has been very impressive, albeit from a low base. Nor should the striking divergence between South Korea and North Korea since 1990 surprise anyone. India has left Pakistan in the dust.
Here is a visualization of the CMP in which, as in the table, the US is fixed at 100:
American remilitarization during the Korean War knocked the USSR back down – though in fairness, the Soviet advantage then was deceiving, since the US had hundreds by the late 1940s and thousands by the early 1950s, so in practice, it was vastly more powerful. But the 1970-80s Soviet military buildup brought it to parity. Then it collapsed and China overtook it sometime during the late 2000s.
This chart is perhaps especially useful in that it shows what a determined military buildup can achieve. The USSR, with half or less of US economic power, built up a military machine that went from 70% of its CMP in 1970 to parity by 1980. China is now at 57%, but it has a bigger GDP (PPP) than the US (it produces its own weapons, so yes, GDP (PPP) is what counts here), a much faster rate of growth, and on top of that its military spending is around 1.9% or almost twice less than the US at 3.4%, i.e. much more room for more catch-up spending (should it choose to pursue that path) that was feasible for the USSR. Even under “business as usual” (5% points higher growth in military spending annually, in line with growth), Chinese CMP should exceed the US by the mid-2030s. However, raising that to a 10% point advantage could allow it to excess the US as early as 2030 (and it would still spend less on the military as a share of GDP than the US by then).
The China + Russia counter dates to 2001, when the SCO was founded. This has become more relevant over time as the two have drifted closer, with increasing talk of an alliance. Combined Sino-Russian military power is now entirely comparable to American, at 90% in 2020 vs. 70% in 2015 and 55% in 2010. The recent effective entrance of Iran into the Sinosphere adds a further 5% of US CMP to this bloc and raises its total to effective parity with the US as of this year.
It is also instructive to look at the Great Powers’ share of world military power. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has accounted for a steady 30% of world CMP. However, the rise of China as well as stronger regional militaries has now knocked down that share to 25%.
Nonetheless, we see that NATO brings its share up to 41.5%, still far ahead of the Sino-Russian bloc, let alone either China or Russia separately. This hints at the great multipliers the US gains from its system of alliances (if they can be successfully coaxed in should a conflict develop into World War III). Tacking on Japan (1.9%), South Korea (2.4%), Taiwan (1.0%), and Australia and Canada (0.8% each) increases the Western bloc’s share of military power to almost half the world’s total – most likely fully half adding in various minor satraps. And in the event that India could be brought on board too, that’s another 6.0% of the world’s military power. This is why we can expect to see an intensification of US efforts to swing India into its camp.
The US has a rapidly narrowing window in which to win a conventional war against China. Probably. There’s a substantial margin of error either way in these CMP estimates, plus other factors (e.g. China will be able to concentrate a greater proportion of its CMP in a war theater than the US, whose military infrastructure is spread thin across the entire globe). However, the US can maintain parity by leveraging its systems of alliances – assuming they can do this in lockstep with Chinese military catchup. This is partly the logic of the Great Bifurcation. The point is not just to block off the emerging Chinese hegemon from economically dominating the entire world, but to intensify military/ideological ties within the Western Alliance to maintain military parity.
On a more philosophical note, it is fascinating to observe fault lines harden and alliances coalesce just when critical milestones in relative military power are passed. Almost as if geopolitics is like some kind of chemical soup, subject to natural laws, with all else (e.g. “Uyghur genocide”, “WuFlu”, etc.) being naught but sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Biggest change is that I decided to narrow the technological gap between the world’s Powers on the assumption that globalization has made them much less germane than during the Cold War (e.g. ball bearings for missiles that could only be manufactured in a few facilities a generation ago can now be ordered off Ali Baba). For a concrete example, see Iran’s Missile Attacks May Have Been Mini-Sputnik Moment. As such, I have converged all rich, high IQ countries, NATO members, Russia, China, and India to the first technological rank (no gaps – assume they have the gross human capital to largely get whatever they need), and have narrowed their gap with the rest to just 5 years.
I think adding a +25% bonus to Germany’s combat effectiveness based off WW1/WW2 performance is increasingly untenable. There was always a major element of arbitrariness to this enterprise, and there are many cultural factors that will be hard to capture (e.g. “Woke Mil” – the SJWization of Western militaries). In later editions of the CMP, I plan to do away with “cultural factors” (“south”, “clannish”, “feats”) in general, and replace them with IQ scores from Lynn & Vanhanen or David Becker. They are not perfect either – in particular, they would not capture the meritocratic element, which has also been fast declining in the US military based on Marine officer test scores – but they are however the most objective and universal measures we realistically have. Ultimately, virtually all aspects of success leverage around average IQ, and correlations become much better still when groups are considered, such as work groups, nations, or – presumably – military organizations.
Speaking of plans, I eventually hope to make a separate website for the CMP (along the lines of Global Firepower) and make it an open data and interactive experience. Hopefully I can do that before another big update becomes necessary, i.e. sometime between now and 2026. But that obviously requires quite a bit of work and I don’t want to spend too much time on that right now (I need to finish GB for a start).
CAN RUSSIA HAVE PEACE NOW?
AT THE RUSSIAN DUMA PEACE CONFERENCE AT THE DUMA
The position of Prussia in Germany will not be determined by its liberalism but by its power … Prussia must concentrate its strength and hold it for the favourable moment, which has already come and gone several times. Since the treaties of Vienna, our frontiers have been ill-designed for a healthy body politic. Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided – that was the great mistake of 1848 and 1849 – but by iron and blood.
Can we have peace when Russians are being pounded with mortars in Donbas? Can we have peace when Russians are being mistreated in former Russian territories where twenty-five million Russians reside? The answer is no.
The position is not so different than when Germany after World War One had millions of Germans cut off from Germany at Versailles as Danzig that was 99% German and entitled to a mandate vote by the United Nations that was denied to it. This was the catalyst of World War Two when at the outset of that war Germany and Russia were allies. However, Germany lost the war and Russia did not.
There was treason within Russia that destroyed their nation in 1991 as during the Bolshevik Revolution. Russia had not lost World War One but the revolutions destroyed a Russia that could have made peace on its front. After World War Two this problem was avoided by all Germans who were left outside Germany being forced to move back to Germany during which many perished. This is even being discussed in the west in the highest circles as relates to the 25 million Russians caught outside of Russia by Yeltsin’s illegal tearing the Baltic States, Ukraine and Central Asia away from Russia. Western circles want them expelled to Russia as we expelled the Germans.
The Ukraine was part of Russia for nearly 400 years. The very idea of its independence was invented in Austria during World War One for the purpose of undermining the Russian Army and it certainly did undermine the Russian Army during that war. The present independence of the Ukraine was set up so the local Trotskyite oligarchs could loot the country as a Russian aligned government was about to move against the oligarchs. That essentially is the history of most of the areas torn from Russia by Yeltsin under western orders.
The Kiev coup was set up by Brzezinski to draw Russia into a new partisan war as in Afghanistan and was accompanied by his ordering the Gulf States to crash the oil price. Brzezinski was concerned about the massive buildup of the Russian Armed Forces starting in 2000 in missiles as well as the modernization of its ground forces and wanted to strike before it was too late. Russia moved to protect the Russians in the Crimea and the Donbas and Luhansk leading to more sanctions. All of it was a setup.
Russia refused to send its armies into the Ukraine, even that part that was strongly pro-Russian such as the eastern Ukraine east of the Dnieper River (which was historically part of Mother Russia), so as not to become bogged down in another Partisan War leaving the rest of the Ukraine to be looted by oligarchs supported by the west and watched its internal financial collapse. The west would not fund the Ukraine’s economy adequately and let it collapse. Most of the IMF injections were stolen by the oligarchs when they transferred their loot out of the country using the IMF money giving them the western currency. These oligarchical looters were backed by the Rothschilds as those in Russia and we see that evidence in the ownership by Lord Jacob Rothschild of all of Khodorkovsky’s now worthless Yukos stock. They are Trotskyites as those in Russia now. The Trotskyites of the Bolshevik Revolution backed by Baron Eduard de Rothschild were also Trotskyites or wolves in different sheep’s clothing and stole Russia’s wealth then until Stalin stopped them in their tracks. Between 1991 to 1999 the equivalent of the present entire householder wealth of Russia was stolen and transferred overseas mostly to London under Lord Jacob Rothschild under today’s Trotskyites. A Trotskyite merely changes his clothing from Marxism to capitalism but never his inner nature. Now they are ruining Russia with sanctions as Putin stopped the looting. Why is this tolerated?
King James Bible: Matthew 7:15
Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.
Kiev was an attempted replay of Afghanistan though in the Ukraine Russia did not play there their Afghani part but watched the Ukraine collapse on its own.
Brzezinski thwarted in the Ukraine then created the pipeline crisis in Syria announcing a new pipeline through Syria from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey to the EU to destroy the Russian exports of natural gas to the EU and that was the basis for opening up Iran by the west. When Iran did not send their natural gas to the EU, the sanctions were reimposed. In order to accomplish this civil war in Syria, Brzezinski brought in the US created Sunni ISIS to start a civil war. ISIS was originally set up by the US to offset the Shia in Iraq allied to Iran, and to weaken the Shia ally al Maliki, and these forces were unleashed on Syria in a civil war. The rise of the Shia was promoted by the colossal blunder by the US destroying Sunni Iraq. Russia moved in to protect Syria with help from Iran, Hezbollah, and Shia contributing the costly boots on the ground and Russia largely providing air power and they won with these allies. Russia’s success at the same time blocked the pipeline that was to be used to destroy Russia. The reason all the Zionist Congressmen and Senators vote for sanctions on Russia is that Israel was infuriated by Russia holding up Syria. They prefer Medvedev to replace Putin. Netanyahu is no friend of Putin.
This left Russia damaged in 2014 by the sanctions; the costs of helping Russians in Donbas and Luhansk; the Syrian war and the oil price crash. Since all of this was due to Russia becoming militarily rebuilt unbeknown to Brzezinski until about 2012-2013, it was expected that Russia would in this game of chess move its Queen to protect itself by advising the west that if the sanctions were not removed Russia would default on its 700 billion dollars of external debt. The involuntary default of 1998 had nearly brought down the entire western financial system when a mere two to three hundred billion dollars went into default triggering the implosion of Long Term Capital Management of their 1.8 trillion dollar derivative position and the near implosion of the western financial system. It was anticipated the west would back down but Russian did not move its Queen but accepted the punishment squeezing its population in the process and creating a massive brain drain of talented Russians to the west based on their highly advanced educational system. The CIA could not believe that Russia was so stupid. Stalin’s repute as a consequence is now at 70% approval rating and Putin at 25%. Erdogan is going down the same way. The CIA coup failed to kill him so that they will get him with sanctions while he helplessly stands idle as Putin.
The west did not take its defeat in Syria lying down and blamed Iran. Iran under the Shah had been the anchor of all CIA Middle East policy. The Shah controlled the massive oil chokepoint at the Straits of Hormuz and now Iran was becoming a grave thorn in the side of the west, namely, the US. Not only does Iran control the Straits of Hormuz, but the US had created a unbalanced Middle East by destroying Iraq which had counterbalanced Iran. The fact that Iran had now established a Shia crescent from Iran to Iraq to Lebanon was untenable to the United States (note the 8-5 missile attack destroying 70% of Lebanon’s Port as part of the effort to destroy the Shia Crescent), and the worst part of it was Iran’s strengthening control of the Straits of Hormuz with Chinese and Russian advanced anti-ship missiles lining Iranian’s shores. These missiles have a range of over 2,000 kilometers where the aircraft fighters on the aircraft carriers a range of 1,100 kilometers, and the destroyer Tomahawks a range of 1,600 kilometers making them useless to attack Iran as the ships would be destroyed once they are in the range of the anti-ship missiles. As to the US airpower at various bases the Iranian missiles would immediately close these bases with the planes flown elsewhere before they are destroyed on the ground costing the US billions of dollars. The defensive missiles as the Patriot, THAAD and Aegis are relatively worthless. Thus, the US cannot project any power to open up the Straits of Hormuz. Even an invasion is impossible as Iran has nuclear weapons from North Korea including hydrogen bombs so a concentration of force cannot be engineered as for the Iraqi war. No nation today as North Korea can survive unless they have nuclear weapons as that gives the US the ability to Hiroshima them or lay them waste as Iraq and Libya by conventional means lest their submarines hit back the US with nuclear missiles. North Korea has developed an ICBM.
It is our belief that nuclear weapons will be not be used in World War Three as poison gas was not in World War Two as all the key powers have them. We see this war coming from the extreme instability in the US as well as the rest of the west which has become as corrupt as Weimar Germany with sodomy and mass abortion proliferating around the world to 1.5 billion souls as well as the unemployment created as in Weimar Germany by the destabilizing influence of the reaction to a coronavirus on the economy equivalent to the reparations imposed on Germany that eventually resulted in the 50% unemployment of 1933 if all the true unemployed were counted. Whatever the coronavirus is, and just possibly a variant of the influenza, the total death rate in the US in 2020 is no more per month than previous years. It is certainly not a pandemic and almost of the deaths ascribed to it would have died anyway from their comorbitities. The US unemployment based on shutdowns reached about 35% if the true figures were counted to include frustrated workers eliminated from the unemployment totals after a year.
In addition, by Iran now allying themselves with Russia, this gives Russia the potential control of the world through their proxy Iran. Let’s outline the hand of cards that the Russians now hold with their victory in Syria with their Iranian ally. Russia produces 11 million barrels of oil per day. If the US and Iran go to war, it would be expected that Russia would move troops into their former Central Asian provinces to protect them that now produce 14 million barrels a day of oil or together 25 million barrels a day of oil production would be under Russian protection or control. Russia could move even now to protect these former Central Asian provinces. Iran controls another 22 million barrels of oil a day that it can shut down at any time merely by saying that no tankers can go through the Straits of Hormuz. China produces nearly five million barrels a day. So Russia, China, and Iran control over half the world’s oil supply and this is the winning hand that these three nations control. In other words, there are a hundred million barrels a day of oil produced in the world and over half is controlled by Iran, Russia and China. This gives these three countries control of the world. Thus, these three nations must stick together. Either they hang together or find themselves hanged separately. This means Iran must be the red line for China and Russia. They cannot allow the US to attack their Iranian ally! It is this that interests the US and not Iranian missiles or nuclear weapons. It is a fight for control of the world. Thus, Iran sanctions are not really about nuclear missiles but the control of the world through the Straits of Hormuz.
The goal of the US is to take out Iran first, then destroy Russia by cutting it out of SWIFT-CHIPS wrecking their economy and then the totally isolated China cannot shift their imports of raw materials to Russia under US control but be boxed in by the eleven US aircraft carrier task forces which can cut off China from their natural resources effectively making China a vassal of the US which was the concept of world control of Britannia when they ruled the waves.
If we assume that Russia and China will redline Iran, this three way alliance through this control of the world can force the EU to end the sanctions and acquiesce to the return to them of the Ukraine, Baltic States and Central Asia if they so choose or cut off the oil. In addition, they can raise the price of oil and sponsor births in their country and build up their technological industries with these riches. NATO forces are to the west of Russia but there is relatively nothing to the east. It would only take a handful of troops to reoccupy the old Russian provinces of central Asia and by cutting off half the world’s oil supply by “indirect” warfare the US would collapse as it would detonate the 600 trillion to 2.5 quadrillion derivative market described by Warren Buffett as a weapon of mass destruction.
Let us repeat the main point. If the US can succeed in destroying Iran, that effectively isolates Russia and China. Then, the US plan is to implement the fatal blow on Russia by cutting them out of CHIPS and SWIFT which comes next. What is CHIPS and SWIFT?
The Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS) is a United States private clearing house for large-value transactions. By 2015 it was settling well over US$1.5 trillion a day in around 250,000 interbank payments in cross border and domestic transactions. Together with the Fedwire Funds Service (which is operated by the Federal Reserve Banks), CHIPS forms the primary U.S. network for large-value domestic and international USD payments where it has a market share of around 96%. CHIPS transfers are governed by Article 4A of Uniform Commercial Code.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), legally S.W.I.F.T. SCRL, provides a network that enables financial institutions worldwide to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardized and reliable environment. SWIFT also sells software and services to financial institutions, much of it for use on the SWIFTNet network, and ISO 9362. Business Identifier Codes (BICs, previously Bank Identifier Codes) are popularly known as “SWIFT codes”.
The majority of international interbank messages use the SWIFT network. As of 2015, SWIFT linked more than 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and territories, who were exchanging an average of over 32 million messages per day (compared to an average of 2.4 million daily messages in 1995). SWIFT transports financial messages in a highly secure way but does not hold accounts for its members and does not perform any form of clearing or settlement.
SWIFT does not facilitate funds transfer: rather, it sends payment orders, which must be settled by correspondent accounts that the institutions have with each other. Each financial institution, to exchange banking transactions, must have a banking relationship by either being a bank or affiliating itself with one (or more) so as to enjoy those particular business features.
SWIFT is a cooperative society under Belgian law owned by its member financial institutions with offices around the world. SWIFT headquarters, designed by Ricardo Bofill Taller de Arquitectura are in La Hulpe, Belgium, near Brussels. The chairman of SWIFT is Yawar Shah, originally from Pakistan, and its CEO is Gottfried Leibbrandt, originally from the Netherlands. SWIFT hosts an annual conference, called Sibos, specifically aimed at the financial services industry. Starting from July 2019, the CEO will be Javier Pérez-Tasso.
If Russia is cut out of CHIPS-SWIFT, and 88% of world financial transactions have a dollar on one side, then Russia is destroyed. They may figure out a way to hang on but Putin’s popularity would hit the level of Yeltsin on his way out and Russia would be back as a vassal of the US. After Russia is destroyed, China will be totally isolated as the US turns its guns on China. Thus, the US wins the game of divide and conquer or divide et impera. That is what this is all about.
Let’s backtrack a bit and go into the weapon that Iran presently controls which is shutting the Straits of Hormuz. Overhanging the world financial system are about 2.5 quadrillion dollars of derivatives which is about 28.6 times the 87.3 trillion dollar world GDP (There are various derivative estimates and this comes from a high Swiss source. The Bank for International Settlements estimates about 560 trillion of derivatives while others go to 1.2 quadrillion saying the BIS mostly has derivatives held by the banks that they base their calculations on and these are hardly representative of the entire world exposure.). Warren Buffett correctly describes these derivatives as financial weapons of mass destruction. 560 trillion dollars which is quite enough in theory to bring down the entire financial system (world GDP is 87.3 trillion dollars in 2019) if triggered by the closing of the Straits but again Swiss sources say it is from 1.2 to 2.5 quadrillion. In other words, the US is destroyed if the Straits are shut as stress tests at Goldman Sachs say the oil price would rise from $70.00 a barrel to $500.00 to a $1,000.00 a barrel at the loss of 22% of the oil supply through the Straits of Hormuz or 22 million barrels a day. While there are significant oil reserves in storage in different countries, and the ability to divert by pipeline about three million barrels a day to the Indian Ocean, this would not make a big enough dent in the collapsing daily supply to make a difference.
If the price of oil rose to a thousand dollars a barrels, and there are a hundred million barrels a day coming out of the ground, this would constitute 45% of the world GDP from less than 4% of the world GDP at seventy dollars a barrel. And yet that is not all. Even if we calculate the temporary effects of storage, and the 78 million barrels a day, and three million barrels a day routed over pipelines to the Indian Ocean, this blow will be sufficient to start the nuclear chain reaction of the derivative market and anyone who does not think so should call up Warren Buffett whom we are sure will agree that we will be in a worldwide depression that this financial weapon of mass destruction would produce. This world depression would be worse than 1929 which will cause the overthrow of all western democratic systems as in Germany in 1933 including that of the United States. There will be hell to pay for the Trotskyite oligarchs of the west.
This is becoming clear by the recent economic gyrations of the US based on the shut down of the economy based on the fear of the coronavirus leading to a 32.9% decline in the US GDP for the second quarter which could be said to be the equivalent of the reparations problem of Germany in 1933 that was caused by its moral decline before World War One that cost them the war. Here we find the US falling apart under similar economic stress after a more extreme moral decline here reflected in the laws legalizing sodomitic marriage and 60 million abortion murders not to speak of the US sponsored 1.5 billion abortion murders worldwide. These abortion murder figures are very much understated as they do not reflect the after morning pill. The US has fallen so low morally that rioters have destroyed 400 cities and the troops have not been called out to end the rioting by shooting the rioters or firing cannons with shrapnel successfully used by Napoleon Bonaparte to clear the Parisian streets. This reflects a total moral breakdown and loss of nerve in the face of Leninist BLM-ANTIFA PSYOPS OPERATORS set up by a foreign power as the Bolshevik Revolution. New York City that reflects 10% of the US GDP has had most of their business leaders fleeing the city as it faces total bankruptcy by allowing the rioters to take over the streets and stabbing the police in the back leading to massively soaring crime rates. New York City is Weimar Berlin.
We saw that stress in 2008 when the disaster was only confined by papering over with 400 years of new Federal Reserve Credit to replace the destruction of derivative instruments. From 1914 to 2008 about 900 billion dollars of Federal Reserve Credit was created before it was fractionalized into the banking system to about 18 trillion M-3 at one point, but we raised that to about 4.6 trillion dollars after the crash to maintain the monetary aggregates so that they would not contract as in 1929. 2.7 trillion was created in this aggregate as excess reserves that did not fractionalize as the Fed paid interest on it to the banks higher than market to cover all their assets that had been destroyed and they were gradually written off against this income as planned.
Today we have created 3 trillion dollars of Federal Reserve Credit in about three to four months and the end of this crisis is not in sight. The budget deficit is soaring toward four trillion dollars out of an seven trillion dollar US budget. The budget deficit in 2008 was 455 billion dollars and in 2009 1.4 trillion dollars. The magnitude of the US financial crisis is unprecedented in history and it is only beginning.
These are interesting examples of a government bailout of an alleged private commercial banking system since these private banks are part of the public creation of credit or money creation by fractionalization which is supposed to be only a governmental function of making money. The banks were to all intents and purposes otherwise bankrupt. However, if we lose 22% of the oil supply, we cannot paper over the loss of oil. Game over.
I repeat the original question. Can Russia have peace if the west is trying to destroy it and the answer is no. Russia is at war now as sanctions are war, and it is a hot war at Donbas, and Russia must move to defend itself on all fronts before it is destroyed. We see Stalin’s popularity rising in Russia to 70% while the present government is losing its popularity. This demonstrates that the Russian people do not think their government is protecting them.
The following actions are required to restore that popularity.
1. The wealth stolen by the oligarchs from Russia must be returned.
2. Russia must move to protect the 25 million Russians outside of Russia and if necessary mobilize their armies to move back to their former provinces to take over control so they are not persecuted.
3. The Central Bank must be reorganized along the lines of the Chinese Central Bank, and no credit can be allowed to be created that does not have a productive purpose. No financing the purchase of stock for speculation. No creation of credit for anything that does not have a productive purpose. Credit should be created to replace all imports by building factories in Russia to manufacture the goods here in Russia. Self-sufficiency will be the rule and all imports except in the case of vital technology should be ended. And as China, Russia must assign thousands of engineers to develop their own technology as ZTE just did to gain complete independence from the United States. ZTE was put out of business for three months when the US would not give them the chips of Qualcomm. ZTE then went on a crash one year program to replace all US chips and succeeded based on a massive effort. They do not need anything from the US anymore and so is China doing now on all fronts. They will be independent in a year or two rather than the planned 2025 from any US technological input. This is war. Is Russia blind? How could they have not seen their Central Bank was run by saboteurs and wreckers when they had the Chinese example before them.
The new Russian Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of Russia who will have replaced the Friedmanites (another form of Trotskyism) must create plans together with the commercial banks to invest in industries that Russia needs as China does and the commercial banks must not think that they have a right to be independent of central bank control. Commercial banks create credit on their own when they fractionalize their reserves and if they used this credit which is really money for their own goals they would be converting a publicly owned asset to a private asset. In other words, when the commercial banks create credit, they create money that is not theirs as in printing a ruble. The state has a right to make sure this money is used in the interests of the people. It is elementary economics that Russia can grow its GDP at 15% a year if the credit is created to make factories needed to manufacture goods as the new production offsets the creation of credit making in non-inflationary. Such elementary rules of economics are beyond the understanding of Russia today. There is no theoretical limit to growth on that basis as you theoretically could grow the GDP 30% a year or more but there may be infrastructure constraints that must be studied in advance so bottlenecks do not take place. But the principle is important to understand as the present central bank is basing their actions on a fixed monetary base growth unrelated to production thinking things will take care of themselves. They do not.
4. The degenerate rock music and night clubs should be closed as forms of corrupting the youth and leading to promiscuity.
5. Abortion is a form of murder and so is sodomy in its perversion of denying life to the soul created before conception in Heaven, see Jeremiah 1:5. Both must be outlawed. No nation can be great while babies or souls in the womb are murdered. Dante says of sodomy that it is a sin against nature as only a fool sows where nothing will grow. The sodomist takes a fruitful function and makes it unfruitful. Stalin was right to outlaw these vices. Also, all forms of contraception should be outlawed as it makes marriages into a form of legalized prostitution. Stalin taught all the boys and girls that they cannot practice sex before marriage (onanism) and the conjugal act should be restricted to the procreative end only. For example, it should not be practiced in marriage while the woman is pregnant, in her menstrual period or after menopause. The goal of the Russian woman should be to have as many children as possible. If necessary, the state should subsidize births as much as needed to the point woman will want to have babies and double and triple the population. The state benefits for mothers should be so high that it is more profitable for a woman to bear children than to go to work. This also can be achieved by the father receiving a family wage to reflect the number of children receiving more of a wage the more children he has. That is true investment for the future. The ideal cycle is three years from conception. Nine months for pregnancy and two years for nursing during which the conjugal act would not be used. If it is used after birth, it can only be used if the procreative end can be achieved and then once a month at the most fruitful time as Zenobia of Palmyra. That is Stalin. That is Napoleon. That is the belief of all great men. That is the devout Christian Church belief. And this is the secret of the preservation of female beauty as explained on French television by Bridgett Bardot that she had become hideous because she gave her beauty and youth to a hundred paramours. That is, her overindulgence in non-fruitful relations destroyed her beauty and her health.
6. In all schools there should be mandatory Bible reading which Bible will teach all these principles especially in the first five books where is found the laws. Stalin studied the Bible in Seminary until he was twenty which gave him the perfect background to instil in Russia the most important principles. There were no innocents executed in the 1936 to 1938 Moscow Treason Trials against Trotskyites and that should be our inspiration. All of them were rightly condemned for Trotskyism and treason against the state. The US has its Trotskyite problem on a trillion dollars a year being stolen on Wall Street through derivatives (that is what they are for) just as Russia had faced by Stalin. Russia right now still has the Trotskyite oligarchs around undermining the state. Putin has been gradually ousting them as Khodorkovsky, Berezovsky, Gusinsky, and others but all the other Trotskyites must go and their assets seized as Khodorkovsky. It must be remembered that even the great Stalin did not eradicate all the Trotskyites until 1936 after 14 years of leadership. It takes time to take back your country. Behind the Russian Trotskyites today is Lord Jacob Rothschild as Baron Eduard de Rothschild was behind Lenin and Trotsky engineering the Bolshevik Revolution through their agent Parvus. It is the Trotskyites in the US who are against detente with Russia as the Trotskyites in Russia. They are the war mongers.
A political meeting should not end up rehearsing endless and meaningless platitudes. It must confront concrete problems with concrete solutions.
We must fight for these principles in Russia. Let’s listen to Fyodor Dostoyevsky at his speech at the unveiling of the Pushkin Statue in 1880 on how these principles are applied.
In this speech he discusses the Pushkin Poem “Yevgeny Onegin” in which Dostoyevsky says is one of the greatest of poems. But he says it should really be named Tatiana. Yevgeny was a aristocratic, dissolute dweller in St. Petersburg high society going to see his sick uncle who was dying as he was his heir. His uncle died and he stayed at his rural mansion and estate a while which he had inherited. He met a beautiful girl named Tatiana who had an aristocratic birth but being that she lived in a rural area she did not have the refinement of St. Petersburg. So he disdained her. She wrote him love letters, and was madly in love with him but he returned them as a gentleman as they could have compromised her future. He rejected her. He makes friends with the suitor of Tatiana’s sister, and says to him he could have his fiancee anytime he wants who had thrown herself at him. This leads to a duel that he really does not want as he loved his friend, and he kills him. He now becomes very distraught, and depressed and wanders around Europe for a number of years. When he comes back to St. Petersburg, he goes to a ball and sees a beautiful young girl who is married to a retired, aristocratic general forty years older than she, and he asks to be introduced. He is astonished that it is Tatiana who now reflects St. Petersburg sophistication. He then falls madly in love with her and goes to see her to persuade her to run off with him.
Tatiana receives his visit formerly and when they are alone he pleads with her to run off with him. Tatiana replies that she is still madly in love with Yevgeny but she cannot leave her husband as she is bound by God, the Biblical prohibition against adultery, honour, and duty, and could not violate that honour out of love.
“Mine honour is my life, both grow in one, take honour from me and my life is done.” (Shakespeare)
So he must go. Then Dostoyevsky proclaims that this Tatiana represents the soul of Russia. And I am here in honour of that soul.
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