Operation Disclosure | BY DAVID K. LIFSCHULTZ, Contributing Writer
Compliments of the Lifschultz Enterprise founded in 1899
The effort of Trump to sell natural gas as LNG to Europe so that they can avoid the dependency on Nord Stream Two which he wanted to smash was questionable while much of ours was going to Mexico. If that changes based on the Texas catastrophe, we could well have a surplus to go to Europe. The cost to convert to LNG and ship to Europe makes it more expensive than Russian piped natural gas through Nord Stream Two. Also, in a war there is a big question whether there will be any commercial ships or tankers plying the seas as nuclear submarines with missiles will probably end world trade by ship. This could have a disastrous effect on just in time inventory control. The US in World War Two had all its industry for the most part in the US but now parts have to come by ship from around the world for even its defence industries. That means in two weeks most of our defensive industries would be shutting down. In other words, we would not be capable of conducting any war for more than two weeks. We gigantically increased our production by tripling shifts in World War Two as almost all our industrial needs were produced here.
If the EU lost the Russian oil and natural gas source, and ocean shipping of parts or oil or natural gas was stopped, then Europe would die having no energy to consume either from Russia and through the Straits of Hormuz or from anywhere. There is a small amount produced on the continent. This is what happened to Germany when the 1,000 ship British Navy blockaded the Europe conquered by Hitler. Hitler said his primary goal in invading Russia was energy or then oil in Baku and the Caucuses. When Field Marshall Fritz Erich von Manstein demanded the troops withdraw from the Caucuses lest they be cut off as at Stalingrad and demanded operational freedom to fend off the coming Russian attack, Hitler said if that is so we have lost the war.
Germany has been warned that if they stop Nord Stream Two that Russia will consider diverting all their oil and natural gas to China and the financing is in place right now to do that. This would place Germany in an untenable position as they would be utterly dependent on the Straits of Hormuz that General Barry Maccfrey says cannot be kept open by our forces, see report below. Then, Germany dies as well as the EU. Putin’s right hand man on energy Shmal Gannadiy has an offer on his desk to finance that diversion of all oil and natural gas from Europe and acknowledged it to a reporter for the Asian Times who covered the story of monumental importance. In other words, Russia does not need the EU for oil or really anything and can look east to China who has really replaced the EU in industrial and technological importance. The tripartite alliance of Russia, China and Iran would control over half the world’s oil supply. Russia has 11 million barrels a day of production and essentially controls in its former eastern provinces 14 million barrels a day more, and Iran controls through their advanced. Chinese and Russian missiles the Straits of Hormuz through which passes 22 million barrels a day. China produces about 5 million barrels a day. That is 52 million barrels a day production in total out of about 95 million barrels a day now due to OPEC cutbacks but can be raised to about a hundred million barrels a day.
Pepe Escobar reports below that Russia may not wait forever for the Germans as the Chinese would like all their oil and natural gas now. The offer is for all the Russian natural gas and oil now going to the EU. The actual US position as that of Great Britain in 1939 was to control the world through control of the shipping lanes which has nothing to do with the slogan of freedom of the seas, and if the EU relies on Russian oil and natural gas its vassalage to the United States who has replaced Britain’s dominance of the sea is over. This could lead to the EU joining the Eurasian nations of China and Russia in an alliance shifting in a Mackinder-Spykman sense the world power balance decisively against the US that would be relegated to a peripheral island status. This would mean the two World Wars One and Two fought by the US to take over the world from Great Britain and Europe would be undone and the commercial Empire thereby built controlling over half the world by its domestic and external investments, and the other half including the third world through imperial agencies as the UN, World Bank, IMF, and the Bank for International settlements would unravel. Thus, the US is frantically pressuring the EU to drop Nord Stream Two to such an extent that this pressure alone may lose the EU to the US forever.
A closely guarded secret in Moscow is that right after German sanctions imposed in relation to Ukraine, a major global energy operator approached Russia with an offer to divert to China no less than 7 million barrels a day of oil plus natural gas. Whatever happens, the stunning proposal is still sitting on the table of Shmal Gannadiy, a top oil/gas advisor to President Putin.
CItation above from Asian Times below:
See footnote three for the military analysis by General Barry McCaffrey based on comments on our lunch at the Harvard Club.
Following his graduation from West Point, McCaffrey was commissioned into the infantry.
His combat tours included action in the Dominican Republic with 82nd Airborne Division in 1965, advisory duty with Army of the Republic of Vietnam from 1966 to 1967, and company command with 1st Cavalry Division from 1968 to 1969.[ During the course of his service, he was twice awarded the Distinguished Service Cross, the Purple Heart three times for wounds sustained in combat, and the Silver Star twice.
McCaffrey’s peacetime assignments included tours as an instructor at U.S. Military Academy from 1972 to 1975, Assistant Commandant at U.S. Army Infantry School; Deputy U.S. Representative to NATO; Assistant to the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS); and Director of Strategic Plans and Policy, Joint Chiefs of Staff.
THE FATE OF AFGHANISTAN
BY DAVID K. LIFSCHULTZ
Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899
There is a growing fear in the B/iden team that if they do not leave Afghanistan by 5-1 as agreed with the Taliban there may be a mass attack by the Taliban that will overrun the 10,000 NATO troops is not sufficient to hold Afghanistan these forces could be wiped out as the British in 1842.
Out of more than 16,000 people from the column commanded by Major General Sir William Elphinstone, only one European, Assistant Surgeon William Brydon, reached Jalalabad as the Afghani forces wanted the British to hear what happened.
The B/iden Administration if it wishes to hold Afghanistan must make a major military build up now or face annihilation if it intends to try to hold this country. Why are we there? It is simple. We are there to run the heroin plantations and we have no intention of giving them up. 9-11 had nothing to do with Afghanistan but it was used as an alibi for restarting the heroin trade which has been covered in other reports. The Taliban had shut down 93% of the world heroin production and an invasion was their reward. The CIA doctored the boarding tapes to show Arabs entering the planes as a form of misdirection even though they were not involved in the planning that was thoroughly botched up and Osam had nothing to do with it. This is quite easy to check out.
There is also a geopolitical reason as pointed out by Pepe Escobar in his article in the Asian Times today:
Everyone familiar with the new great game on steroids across Eurasia knows why: A strategic lily pad must be maintained at the intersection of Central and South Asia to help closely monitor – what else? – Brzezinski’s worst nightmare, the Russia-China strategic partnership.
The US military situation is just about hopeless. We are 20 years behind the Russian missiles, and the Chinese according to Apple have the greatest engineering depth in the world. As the Chinese are being threatened by the US left and right which was wrong and uncalled for they are responding by conducting one of the greatest military buildups in history as the Russians. They are massively building out their submarine fleets and missile systems. They can hit from their land our guidance satellites for our missiles which would force us to shift to land based guidance in the middle of a conflict when missiles launched from submarines can hit our coast in a few minute and ICBM can hit us in less that 15 to 20 minutes.
We cannot even staff our engineering firms. Our top engineering firms have 1/3 Chinese employees, 1/3 Indians and 1/3 Americans. We have no national security left as leaks are all over and our weapons are behind almost everywhere. Their only hope is to bribe some Russian military industrial complex personnel but they have a homogenous population that is loyal unlike our own side. Most of our youth are on drugs. The only hope of our top people is to steal it or catch up but the latter is almost impossible. The true Russian military budget is about 300 to 400 billion dollars but they get 7 times the money that we do so their budget to be matched by us must be at least two trillion dollars.
In the meantime we are trying to bluff our allies and enemies that we are the greatest military power while secretly hoping to catch up. It is not going to happen in the current disarray of the US. I have been warning about this disparity for over 15 years and they only started to listen in 2014 for which reason they created the Kiev Coup to draw Russia into another Vietnam to drain money away from their military budget. Putin was too smart to be tricked into another Afghanistan. Then, they moved on to Syria to open it up for a Qatar pipeline to pipe the natural gas to the EU to replace Gazprom. Here Putin came in with air power and Iran and the Shia with ground forces and blocked the pipeline.
The US military is in a full scale panic. Since my OSS colleagues retired or died the last one in about 2006, it has been straight down hill for the US. Our 17 intelligence agencies including the CIA are worthless as their low salaries recruit incompetent talent as Brennan and Clapper. Our OSS had the best and the brightest as everyone went to war in World War Two so we had brains. When we had meetings, the key people were the OSS hands who were no longer even in the CIA, etc. They ran it from the outside in business though the tradition is once in the CIA always in the CIA.
I have met many of the Joint Chiefs and they would have been sergeants in the Prussian Army of World War Two.
The Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff makes less than 200k and he is not worth that much. A fellow like Mattes has the ability of a sergeant. The last CEO of Boeing made 30 million dollars a year not counting stock options. So the members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff approve nearly a trillion dollars in expenses and get next to nothing for it. They want those board seats after they retire and they will do anything for that. Nothing matters to them other than that as the country goes to the dogs.
Why did the Germans have geniuses as von Manstein, von Rundstedt, von Bock, etc. and a galaxy of others and the US have incompetents as Eisenhower, Marshall, etc. The best we had was Patton but Panzer General Hermann Balck who fought against Patton said he created breakthroughs but was weak on followup or exploiting the temporary advantage. Military historian blame Eisenhower, a thoroughly inept officer, who did hold back a major Patton breakthrough that might have ended the war earlier by denying him fuel for giving it to the even more inept Montgomery allowing Hitler time to bring in his defensive Specialist Field Marshall Model who regrouped and hardened German defences costing us tens of thousands of men. Patton never forgave Eisenhower for that but otherwise Patton did lack followup.
Marshall was according to General MacArthur totally incompetent so Stalin’s spy picked him for his top job as he was easy to control, and that was Harry Hopkins. NKVD General Pavel Sudoplatov in his autobiography “Special Tasks”, who handled the liquidation of Trotsky, said that Stalin had a spy in the White House that did not report to him but Stalin personally but the nuclear secrets came to him from J. Robert Oppenheimer whereas the Rosenbergs that Roy Cohn fried were low level couriers.
The reason that Frederick the Great and successor Kaisers gave great farming estates to the successful generals and their descendants was so they would have a great officer class of proven, high level officers. It was father sons, father sons for over 150 years. The US destroyed that after World War Two and now the German Army is more worthless than ours which is pretty bad. In Russia the 19th century emancipation was totally unwise and destroyed their military junker class. It also destroyed the security of the peasant who became the rootless proletariat that the Bolsheviks successfully promised land for their support which worked but that they never delivered on. In other words, the peasants were thrown off the land and had no land. Offering them land was a brilliant tactic. They had been just thrown into the street and ended up in the cities as in a Dickens novel who were similarly thrown off the English estate farms as they switched to raising sheep which required much fewer peasants. The concept of Noblesse Oblige is unheard in England.
The problem with the CIA and the sixteen other intelligence agencies is that they are terribly incompetent as the low wages they pay do not attract top people. In World War Two the top people went to the OSS as everyone had to serve, and so we had first class people. Not now. I worked with them and they had talent. However, even then, they lined their pockets with billions of dollars as their reward from revenue streams as from the Afghanistan heroin operation. The d/eep state was not going to watch the Wall St. manipulators steal trillions through manipulation as naked shorting and cash settlement and not get their cut.
Affirmative action and sodomy legalization has destroyed the army officer corp as well as the loyalty of the army. Here is one of the best of the Israeli intelligence officers on the US Army:
Here is from a military instructor of the US Army:
Alan Sabrosky, Ph.D, is a retired Marine officer and former Director of Studies at the United States Army War College‘s Strategic Studies Institute where he held the position of The Douglas MacArthur Chair of Research. He received The Superior Civilian Service Award in 1998. He has taught at The United States Military Academy at West Point; Georgetown University; The University of Pennsylvania; and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Next, we give a brief summary of his views:
The military will split politically if not racially if it is ordered to quell riots or an insurrection under orders from POTUS. POTUS can Federalize the National Guard but the National Guard in disaffected states like Oregon and Washington may not all obey. Navies and air forces are traditionally the most vulnerable to revolutionary propaganda, having the most people who have gone through college and thus been exposed (in the case of the U.S.) to the same “cultural Marxist” indoctrination as their civilian counterparts. Even the Army and Marine Corps are not immune – does no one recall the photos a few years back of a group of graduating black female West Point cadets giving the “black power” salute while in uniform? None was disciplined, they are likely captains today, and they are NOT alone out there.
Let’s turn to Brennan and Clapper:
Note that Japan’s defence agreements just concluded do not require them to meet Trump’s request to finance our troops. Here is a main issue. B/iden, Brennan and Clapper want us to defend Japan at our cost and allow the currency rigging on behalf of the ghost of SEATO and NATO. Same with Germany. We sacrifice for the alliance. The Trump position was that we cannot allow our internal industries to be destroyed and go bankrupt supporting these countries that have rigged their currencies against us. Clapper and Brennan think that they are right to oppose Trump for these defence treaties, and will lie and cheat for the good of the US against Trump. The d/eep state threw Trump out over this. Not that he could do anything but talk. Clapper and Brennan won and Durham did not even ask them one question.
I wrote Donald up an idea which no one in two hundred years ever publicly advocated in a piece entitled how to solve the trade deficit in one step. Counter rig their rig. They buy our currency and we buy theirs until the trade deficit is wiped out and we pay back the deficits by an industrial resurgence. We buy and buy and buy and outbuy them. Trump ran with it. It created a sensation. But as anticipated the d/eep state shot it down. What could he do? They surrounded him with d/eep state hangers on and gave him no choice.
And last but not least what is the point of Trump running in 2024 when we know the election was rigged. Unless this is cleared up, there is no point.
THE UNITED STATES IN DISSOLUTION
BY DAVID K. LIFSCHULTZ
Compliments of the Lifschultz Organization founded in 1899
The United States has lost the Eurasian land mass from the Pacific Ocean to the English Channel to all intents and purposes.
The United States cannot and will not defend Europe with nuclear weapons. The only debate is how long it will take for the Russian shock armies to reach the English Channel if NATO decides to attack Russia. My estimate is three weeks but the Pentagon’s is two weeks. The US cannot survive a nuclear war as most of its population would be destroyed as it has no defensive missile worthy of the name or bomb shelters for its people while Russia seals its airspace with the S-600 and the coming S-700 defensive missiles. Each of these missiles contain ten interceptor missiles and travels over 20,000 miles an hour. 40 million Russians in the cities have the protection of bomb shelters but the US has none except for the White House and certain military installations though a 100 megaton bomb hitting the White House would pierce their bomb shelters. Russia knows very well that NATO is just a meaningless propaganda instrument.
As to Taiwan, it is also indefensible. Taiwan has no nuclear weapons and can be eliminated as a power by nuclear weapons in a few minutes. They would have to give up before the attack and accept becoming a part of China. Chinese troops would land without opposition. This applies to most of Asia.
The Pakistani Generals consider the Indian Army as meaningless as the Indian armies that fought the British and that they will break and run on contact. Since both sides have nuclear weapons, the mutual destruction of a nuclear war would eliminate both of them as powers probably forever and probably will not be used.
British rule from the time after the mutiny is often called the Raj. During this period a tiny number of British officials and troops (about 20,000 in all) ruled over 300 million Indians.
Here are quotes from the following article below depicting the disarray of NATO:
But the concept of joint funding hides a more painful reality – the deployment of NATO military battlegroups into Poland and the Baltics is, in and of itself, militarily meaningless. Arecent RAND analysis concluded that Russia would defeat these forces and overrun the Baltics within 60 hours after the initiation of hostilities. The amount of combat power that would need to be deployed into the Baltics to alter that outcome is currently beyond the ability of NATO to deploy and sustain.
The only nation capable of providing the kind of sustainable, trained, and equipped combat power necessary to fight a viable ground combat campaign against Russian forces in either the Baltics or Poland is the United States. As things stand, the US is unwilling and unable to foot the cost of a deployment beyond an armored brigade it maintains in Poland on a rotational basis, and a forward corps-sized headquarters recently established on Polish soil. The US has conducted reinforcement exercises, where a second armored brigade is flown into Germany, equips itself using prepositioned stocks warehoused in Germany, and is deployed via rail and road into Poland.
As to the US conventional power, it has not been used except at the cost of 7 trillion dollars in two brushfire wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that it basically lost. In the battle for Europe, the US would be defeated as its preponderance in air power would be destroyed in the five to ten minutes by hypersonic missiles hitting the NATO airfields and there would be no force capable of stopping the Russian conventional forces from overrunning all of Europe in a few weeks. The arrogance of NATO reminds me of the British and French before the German Panzer Armies hit them in 1940 when France fell in about 20 days and the rest of the time was spent cleaning it up.The United States Empire is imploding from within as we saw last summer that this so-called world power sat idly by while 200 cities burned where the fires were set off by alien elements which event will be regarded by historians as the summer that ended the United States Empire. It was the equivalent of the Spartacus slave revolt against Rome but here the US was unable to defend itself from internal dissolution it has become so corrupted. The Romans appointed Marcus Licinius Crassus to put down the rebellion leading 8 legions and smashed it to smithereens. Six thousand rebels who gave themselves up lined the Appian Way crucified on wood crucifixes from Rome to Capua.
The US is finished as a world power as its cities turn into miniature Rhodesias that cannot live without importing food from the UN as Rhodesia which was once the breadbasket of Africa under Ian Smith. Ray Dalio says his predicted Civil War has come to life as the whites flee the northern cities and California southward to be replaced by a hundred million illegal immigrants encouraged in by B/iden to deliver votes for Democrats by a crash citizen course. The reader does not need too great an imagination to figure out how the Hunter B/iden consulting business is doing.
Footnote Three contains an extensive military analysis of the Navy:
THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ AS A TRIGGER TO WORLD DEPRESSION
July 1, 2018
There is a grave national interest that is threatened by the derivative and financial structure outlined below in the report below on the use of Stochastic Control Theory which I have explained in simple English. According to Warren Buffett, the 600 trillion to 1.2 quadrillion world derivative market constitutes a weapon of financial mass destruction. In the discussions outlined below, these derivatives are used to drain at least a trillion dollars a year out of the market in manipulated profits. Aside from this being parasitic and illegal, it is dangerous to the national security of the United States as the shutting of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran can trigger a world depression as these 1.2 trillion of derivatives implode. These profits are protected by the former Attorney General Eric Holder too big to prosecute doctrine.
The 1987 stock market crash was engineered by the manipulation of the stock market by the cash settlement derivative by a giant cartel on Wall St. as explained in the Stochastic piece. It was resolved by forcing all the major players in the cartel to use their massive profits from their manipulation to reverse the crash using the same technique that they crashed it with and this was successful. In the 2008 crash such efforts were not sufficient and we created about 400 years of credit to make sure the monetary aggregates such as M-3 did not implode. 2.7 trillion dollars of which were used as excess reserves to repair the balance sheets of the bankrupt banks by paying them interest above market so that they would not fractionalize for ten years. These excess reserves are now being unwound with a much more limited effect than if they had been fractionalized. This can be offset by lowering reserve requirements as the Chinese are doing. We had to make up for the destruction of credit and it could be handled by papering it over.
If the Straits of Hormuz are closed by the Iranians the shortage of 22% of the world oil supply could not be similarly papered over and it would detonate a collapse of the 1.2 quadrillion derivative market causing a market crash worse than 1933 Weimar Germany. The Bank for International Settlements calculates about 600 billion in total derivatives but Swiss sources say there are at least 1.2 quadrillion with some placing it at 2.5 quadrillion. This relates to an 88 trillion dollar World GDP or a derivative market 28 times the World GDP.
General Barry McCaffrey explained to me below at a lunch at the Harvard Club that the US fleet cannot keep the Straits of Hormuz open as it cannot project sufficient military power to do so and the fleet must leave immediately the entire area in the event of a war with Iran or face total annihilation.
“The Russians have delivered large quantities of Sunburn missiles to Iran designed to fly as low as nine feet at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity. They can be fired from a flatbed truck which makes them mobile. It is perfect for flying into the Straits of Hormuz which is no more than forty miles wide while the actual transit space is about two miles at points. This missile fired from the Iranian shores will punch a hole the size of a room in any ship in the Straits in a fraction of a second. The SS-N-22 sunburn supersonic anti-ship missile has been described as the most lethal missile in the world today designed to defeat the Aegis radar defence system of the United States and subsequent renditions. The Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missile (speed Mach 2.9) line the Iranian northern shore. No declassified studies of the ability of these missile to penetrate an aircraft carrier defence have been issued, but it would appear that a large barrage of these missiles cannot be defended against by any known method but jamming equipment.
However, we have the example of the Russian missile (falsely attributed to China) designed with anti-jamming equipment hitting an Israeli frigate (INS Hanit, July 14, 2006) off the shore of Lebanon during the Israeli attack on the Hezbollah. It sailed through the most advanced US and Israeli jamming equipment. While the Israelis denied that they even had turned on their jamming equipment, this did not make any sense to have the INS Hanit jamming equipment turned off when that ship off Lebanon was in a war zone and that they were turned on was confirmed to me by the highest Israel authorities (Mossad) who said they issued this denial at the request of the Americans so that it might not be known that the system on American warships was worthless.”
Many more advanced offensive missiles than this have been since that conversation been acquired by the Iranians as well as advanced anti-missile missiles to deny access to their airspace from enemy aircraft.
“The United States does not have the military power to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and its carrier task forces must flee if they are within range of Russian and Chinese anti-ship missiles lining the coast of Iran which are the most advanced in the world.” General Barry McCaffrey, former Assistant to the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS); and Director of Strategic Plans and Policy, Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a conversation with David Lifschultz at lunch at the Harvard Club.” In addition, in a conversation with David Lifschultz the chief derivative trader in oil for Goldman Sachs said if the Straits were cut off oil would rise to $500.00 to a $1,000.00 a barrel and then crash the derivative market taking down the world economy as Warren Buffett has pointed out.
Here is a brief summary of the military analysis of General Barry McCaffrey at the Harvard Club lunch with me in which he discusses the strategic inability of the United States to keep the Straits of Hormuz open:
The aircraft carrier became the new weapon of naval war replacing the battleship as the premier weapon for the simple reason that the planes were able to destroy the battleships before the battleships came near enough to destroy the aircraft carriers. This made battleships, cruisers and destroyers obsolete.
The United States ended the World War Two essentially in control of the all the seas and their main instrument of control were these aircraft carrier task forces. The US took this control from the exhausted and bankrupt British Empire and inherited their long built Empire with the empires of Japan, Germany, France and the Netherlands. The control mechanism was the US control of the world financial system established at Bretton Woods constructed around the CHIPS and Swift clearing systems where 88% of world financial transactions has a dollar on one side. The UN and World Court were merely parts of the control mechanism where the small nations rights were really imaginary as we see in the case of Iran.
When the Korean war broke out with the surprise invasion of South Korea in June, 1950, the other key component of the United States winning World War Two of land based air power was quickly nullified as most of the friendly air bases in South Korea were overrun. (Tanks armies were the third component of World War Two military power now nullified by advanced Kornet missiles. Submarines were the third.) The United States Seventh Fleet quickly arrived at the scene to provide that air power to the US and South Korean armies stranded defending at the Pusan Perimeter which saved the day. It was from that moment to the present that air power projection against land targets, rather than the fleet battles in the deep blue water, would be the main justification for aircraft carrier task forces. Naval aircrews from the Seventh Fleet’s Task Force 77 flew 275,000 sorties amounting to 53% of the close air support and 40% of the interdictions sorties in Korea.
Air power was a major factor in World War Two. Field Marshall Fritz Erich von Manstein outnumbered troops defeated the Russians at the Crimea saved by Baron Wolfram von Richthohen Fliegerkorps VIII whose air force annihilated half the Russian forces. There Fritz earned his Marshall’s Baton. In a reversal at Normandy, Field Marshall Rommel in his famous message to Hitler predicting an allied breakthrough stated that allied air supremacy was smashing their best trained troops and the situation was hopeless. As we shall discuss later, the United States is banking on air power to stop the Russian Army in Europe today in the event of an attack but there will be no airports whether military or commercial within ten minutes of the commencement of war as Russian Iskander missiles carrying tactical nuclear warheads or conventional will knock them all out nullifying NATO’s air power. Tank warfare is similarly obsolete based on the improved Kornet missile and advanced silent submarines and their advanced missiles will control the seas eliminating the aircraft carriers the other major component of World War Two power. The problem is that the western armies are preparing for World War Two and not World War Three. As such, a look at NATO and its dilapidated German force demonstrates that this deterrent is but a figment of the imagination and would be wiped out within two to three weeks according to German generals we have discussed this with. In other words, in a war in Europe the three components of World War Two military power power the aircraft carrier nullified by submarines, tanks nullified by the Kornet missile and air power nullified by the destruction of the air fields would not stand in the way of a Russian Army that could reach the English Channel in two weeks.
During the Vietnam War the US Navy similarly projected air power in the newly reconstituted Task Force 77 participating in the sustained air campaigns such as Rolling Thunder and Linebacker. From 1964 to 1973 Task Force 77 flew hundreds of thousands of attack sorties against targets in North and South Vietnam. In Operation Desert Storm in Iraq the United States Navy gathered six aircraft carriers with over 400 aircraft into the Red and Arabian Seas as part of the coalition air campaign. The aircraft carriers remained in the region participating in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflict.
During the period from World War Two until recently the Navy operated close to shore with little to fear. The Russians and Chinese have developed anti-ship missiles that line the coast of China creating a 2,000 kilometer fire zone where no aircraft carrier is safe according to open sources. We understand that the range is much further than this from informed sources. If we go just by the 2,000 kilometer line it includes a large part Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.. And if we go according current informed estimates 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, it will include all of these countries as well as the waterways. It would jeopardize our bases in countries as Japan, the Philippines, etc. which would be targeted in a war.
The Chinese anti-navy missile and airpower is dispersed, mobile, and designed either to be hidden or sheltered in hardened and underground facilities. For example, China’s DF-21D anti-ship missile is based on a medium-range missile that is moved about and launched from a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). Most of China’s land-based anti-ship land attack cruise missiles are also launched from a TEL. China’s maritime strike airpower, which includes most of its fleet of Flanker fighter aircraft, can be based at scores of air bases, most of which are hardened against attack, some to a very high extent. These are the forces that can reach out 2,000 kilometers if not more.
It is important to note that our new F-35C strike fighter for our aircraft carriers has a maximum combat radius 1,100 kilometers which is about the same as the older F/A 18 EF. Even when armed with standoff missiles, these combat radii won’t be adequate to keep the aircraft carriers out of range of land-based threats to aircraft carriers. In addition, most of our bases are vulnerable within the 2,000 kilometer range and all of them except in Australia would be within Chinese missile defensive range at 4,000 kilometers.
We recently watched the Tomahawk missiles strike Syria but their range is only 1,600 kilometers which are carried by our cruisers and destroyers which makes them worthless against a land opponent with longer distance missile capacity as China presently has lining their shore.
In other words, the nearer bases are vulnerable and the farther bases are too far out for our short range designed strike aircraft. This means our entire offensive capacity in Asia is geared to short-range conflict that we are hopelessly outmatched in that almost all our short range bases stand to be immediately wiped out by Chinese defensive missiles and our long range bases do not have sufficient long range strike aircraft. We must consider all our aircraft carriers as short range as they are limited by the range of their aircraft and therefore useless in future ground support operations, And as far as their use for patrolling the seas the aircraft carriers are vulnerable to advanced Russian and Chinese silent submarines with anti-ship missiles. In other words, the United States has lost control of the seas and all of its commerce is in jeopardy in the event of a major war. Its military industrial complex that depends on parts from Asia could be shut down within two weeks for those that rely on just in time inventory control.
The US air capacity is about 12-1 short range to long range strike aircraft. This means that our enormous air power in Europe stands to be wiped out when the Russians hit the air fields with tactical nuclear weapons, and our long range strike aircraft is totally inadequate for the defence of Europe. Our entire defence budget is, therefore, warped and irrational.
The cost of a Gerald R. Ford-call aircraft carrier is 15.1 billion dollars which breaks down to 11.8 billion for the carrier and 3.3 billion for 24 F-35C strike fighters. We could buy for that some 27 of the new long-range strike aircraft at a planned cost of 550 million each. The United States has to immediately shift its procurement budgets to try to remedy this mismatch.
Thus far General McCaffrey analysis and it continues.
The Russians have delivered large quantities of Sunburn missiles to Iran designed to fly as low as nine feet at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity. They can be fired from a flatbed truck which makes them mobile. It is perfect for flying into the Straits of Hormuz which is no more than forty miles wide while the actual transit space is about two miles at points. This missile fired from the Iranian shores will punch a hole the size of a room in any ship in the Straits in a fraction of a second. The SS-N-22 sunburn supersonic anti-ship missile has been described as the most lethal missile in the world today designed to defeat the Aegis radar defence system of the United States and subsequent renditions. The Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missile (speed Mach 2.9) line the Iranian northern shore. No declassified studies of the ability of these missile to penetrate an aircraft carrier defence have been issued, but it would appear that a large barrage of these missiles cannot be defended against by any known method but jamming equipment. However, we have the example of the Russian missile designed with anti-jamming equipment hitting an Israeli frigate (INS Hanit, July 14, 2006) off the shore of Lebanon during the Israeli attack on the Hezbollah. It sailed through the most advanced US and Israeli jamming equipment. The Chinese have these missiles.
The United States has tested successfully in 2013 the X-47B experimental unmanned aircraft though the trouble with them is that its range is only 1,900 kilometers versus about 1,100 for manned jets, but that greater range is insufficient to operate outside even the 2,000 kilometer missile defensive wall of Russian and Chinese missiles and these anti-ship missiles are said to have a much greater distance capability. There was a phenomenal exhibition of Russian military advances when their equipment downed a Stealth Drone and effected its landing in Iran enabling the Russians to put their hands on this advanced technology. The implications of this military coup could be dire for any adversary in that a nuclear tipped missile fired at Iran could be diverted and returned to its source. Nor have we discussed here how the Russians have sealed their airspace with defensive missiles (S-500) ending MAD. Nor their tens of millions of nuclear bomb shelters for their people.
This ends the General’s analysis summed by saying in a war the US fleet must flee away from the Straits of Hormuz or be annihilated, and the US cannot keep the Straits open.
If the Iranians shut down the Straits of Hormuz, 22% of the world oil supply will be cut off. The consequences will be that the oil price will rise to over $500.00 to $1000.00 a barrel and the world economy will start to implode with all the financial markets crashing as in 1929 as the 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives start a chain reaction of destruction as a financial weapon of mass destruction. In this case, the shortage of oil unlike the shortage of credit in 2008 destroyed as it was cannot be made up by a fiat instruments. The oil is not there. Therefore, this derivative market is a national security issue. The manipulations of markets is also a serious issue as it is illegal but no one seems to care about it. Until these derivatives are wound down, Iran controls the entire world whether the US Carthaginian Congress wants to recognize it or not. This is the reason the US wants to oust the present leadership in Iran and not nuclear weapons that are available on the black market from Pakistan and North Korea as the Straits closing would collapse the US economy.
I had proposed a solution to this problem to the then Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman that the company named Genoil can tap the 900 billion barrels of world heavy oil reserves creating a 25 million barrel a day reserve production capacity at a cost of 165 billion dollars as an insurance policy for the now 88 trillion dollar world GDP and Sam thought it was a great idea. However, it was blocked by the major oil companies as the Genoil technology is highly disruptive to the value of their light oil reserves whose value would collapse as Genoil can convert heavy, high sulfured oil to light unsulfured oil at a much cheaper price that WTI and Brent which make up their reserves.
We recommend that the Department of State together with the Department of Defense and Treasury Departments move to unwind the 2.5 trillion derivative market for national security reasons on an emergency basis and adopt the Genoil technology.
February 24, 2021
Mexico’s Energy Conundrum
Winter storms were just the beginning.
By: Allison Fedirka
LIFSCHULTZ ENTERPRIZE, Founded 1899
Tel: (212) 688-8868
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