Ken Cao: An Open Letter to Chairman Xi

Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle
@Ken_LoveTW

An Open Letter to Chairman Xi

Dear Chairman Xi,

Congratulations on another masterclass in “strategic defeat.”

After years of advertising Venezuela as an ironclad friend, Beijing has now demonstrated the full meaning of that phrase: ironclad until the moment it matters.

With Nicolás Maduro removed from the board, China has gracefully exited a position that just happened to include 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—the largest on Earth—worth roughly $17 trillion at current prices (Sourced from @glennbeck). A remarkable show of discipline. Few leaders have the courage to walk away from assets of that scale while simultaneously lecturing the world about “energy security.”

But oil, of course, is overrated. China only purchases 60–90% of Venezuela’s crude exports, 85–90% of Iran’s oil, and nearly half of Russia’s output. Minor details. Trivial dependencies. Easily replaced by speeches about multipolarity.

Unfortunately, timing can be cruel. With Venezuela destabilized and Iran wobbling at the same moment, China now stands to lose roughly 70% of its non–U.S.-regulated oil supply. Seventy percent. A rounding error, surely. After all, what’s a modern industrial economy without energy?

This development has several exciting side benefits:

• No Taiwan war, because wars require fuel.
• No AI dominance, because data centers don’t run on slogans.
• No BRICS reserve currency, because confidence backed by energy scarcity is… innovative.

Game theory, simplified.

The West, inconveniently, does not share this problem. Gas prices continue to fall. Refining capacity hums along. The issue was never about needing Venezuelan oil. As Secretary Rubio put it with refreshing bluntness: The United States simply will not allow the oil industry in this hemisphere to be controlled by adversaries. In other words, the oil stays in the ground—or flows west—but it does not flow to Beijing.

By stepping away from Maduro at the critical moment, China didn’t just lose a partner. It forfeited leverage over energy, timing, and escalation. The long game was played—by someone else—and the board was quietly reset. But there is good news.

There will still be press releases.
There will still be summits.
There will still be ironclad friendships—just lighter, more symbolic ones.

And somewhere in North Korea, Kim Jong Un is watching all of this very carefully.

Pyongyang now understands the rule: China is happy to pose for photos, issue statements, and talk about shared destiny—right up until the day destiny sends the bill.

Ironclad friendships, it seems, rust fastest when tested.

With warm regards and cooler pipelines,
Ken Cao

An Open Letter to Chairman Xi

Dear Chairman Xi,
Congratulations on another masterclass in “strategic defeat.”

After years of advertising Venezuela as an ironclad friend, Beijing has now demonstrated the full meaning of that phrase: ironclad until the moment it matters.

With… pic.twitter.com/faGLTht4vd

— Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle (@Ken_LoveTW) January 7, 2026

Source(s):
https://x.com/Ken_LoveTW/status/2008795118900572385

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